The key to achieving long term goals is to define short term goals that lead you there. Focusing those short term goals around a key metric is essential. However, ensure that the metric will not lead other areas astray by having an appropriate counter critical metric act as a counter balance.
The stimulus from the CARES Act has ended, and so far, Congress cannot find a way to replace it. Democrats in the House have passed a bill, but Senate Republicans, lacking a unified approach, have waited until the end of the summer to propose a plan. Currently, Secretary Steven Mnuchin is negotiating with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to find a compromise. So, what?
Well, without the stimulus, unemployment is expected to rise. Last week’s Bureau of Labor’s jobs report showed that the job gains from April slowed dramatically, adding just 661,000 jobs. The unemployment rate now stands at 7.9%, down from 14.7% in April. Currently, approximately 25 million people rely on jobless benefits to get by, and the outlook is worse. Last week, the Walt Disney Co. said it would lay off 28,000 people, and American Airlines Group Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc. announced 32,000 job cuts. These are just the massive layoffs; however, lots of smaller companies are laying off workers.
So far, most of the damage has been to low-income workers, but the pain is moving up the wage scale. A recent Wall Street Journal article pointed to a couple in New York who earned about $175,000, enough to cover the mortgage, two car leases, student loans, credit cards, and assorted costs of raising two daughters in the New York City suburbs. However, since COVID hit shutting down the courts, one of them, a lawyer, is unable to work, and the family is running low on savings. They can’t keep up with $9,000 in monthly debt payments, including mortgage installments.
In the U.S., consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of gross domestic product, and as more people are unemployed, many will deplete their saving and stop spending. A fall in consumer spending affects everyone as we are all linked in this economy. If consumer spending falls, B2C companies suffer and lay off more people and stop buying from B2B companies, so the cycle continues. No one is immune.
While many have pointed to fall credit card debt levels during COVID, more worrying is the number of people behind on their mortgages, rent, and utilities. As we head into winter, with many facing evictions, no heat or water, the prospects are even worse. As some might recall from their economics class, the marginal propensity to consume is greater for those in lower-income brackets. Therefore, to boost the economy, middle- and lower-income Americans need to be able to consume. While the wealthy will spend some of the benefits they receive, they will spend far less, so the positive impact on the economy is limited.
Many fiscal conservatives have said that they are now concerned about the deficit and deterring people from working. It is nice to see they have finally found some courage; however, it seems more that they object to anyone they believe doesn’t deserve a benefit getting one. There was a deafening silence from this crowd with the passage of The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in December 2017, which provided benefits to companies and the wealthy. Many in the Administration and other conservatives claimed that the TCJA would pay for itself. Unfortunately, not! The deficit increased since its passing, and Bloomberg’s analysis showed that most corporate tax cuts went for buy back shares. In my opinion, this spending on buyback is the leading cause of the stock market’s continued rise.
While some will claim that increases income for everyone, only about 10% of the population owns shares outside of a retirement plan. So, the impact of the rising market does little for overall consumption and the economy.
During the Great Recession, Congress failed to provide enough stimulus for a full recovery. It is in danger of doing the same again, and this time I fear the consequences will be far worse. I would advise all CEOs to what cash levels and liquidity, but at the same time, we need people spending to grow out of this hole.
Defining an organization’s culture as a “Family” culture reflects tolerance to subpar performance. Rather focus on those characteristics of a “family” culture that you want.
Knowing the profit of your core customers is key to building a growth model. Many companies have identified core customers that are generating a sub-optimal profit and so they cannot realize the profits they seek. Identifying the correct core customer allows you to generate profits and often operate in “Blue Ocean.”
The European Super League collapsed within days of launch due to hubris and the founder forgetting the key parts of their business model, value creation, sales, and value delivery. The collapse might bring a high price.
Many business owners want to sell at the top of the market. However, market timing is tough. Is this the best strategy? Probably not.
Working with many companies looking to grow, I am always surprised how many have not built a financial model that drives growth. I have mentioned before a financial model that drives growth? Here I am basing on Jim Collin's Profit/X, which he laid out in Good to...
As we emerge from COVID, the current employment environment makes me think of a surfing concept: “Being Caught Inside When a Big Set Comes Through.” Basically, the phrase refers to when you paddle like crazy to escape the crash of one wave, only to find that the next wave in the set is even bigger—and you’re exhausted. 2020 was the first wave, leaving us tired and low. But looking forward, there are major challenges looming on the horizon as business picks up in 2021. You are already asking a lot of your employees, who are working flat out and dealing with stress until you are able to hire more. But everyone is looking for employees right now, and hiring and retention for your organization is growing more difficult.
“Why don’t they use common sense?!” You may have said this phrase yourself, or heard it with your managers, when discussing an employee’s actions. However, the frustrated appeal to “common sense” doesn’t actually make any meaningful change in your organization. We all make decisions based on the information we have and the guides we have to use. So if the wrong decisions are being made in your organization, it’s time to examine the tools you give decision-makers.
You can only determine profitability when you know your costs. I’ve discussed before that you should price according to value, not hours. However, you still need to know your costs to understand the minimum pricing and how it is performing. Do you consider each jobs’ profitability when you price new jobs? Do you know what you should be charging to ensure you hit your profit targets? These discussions about a company’s profitability, and what measure drives profit, are critical for your organization.
If you were starting your business today, what would you do differently? This thought-provoking question is a valuable exercise, especially when it brings up the idea of “sunk costs” and how they limit us. A sunk cost is a payment or investment that has already been made. Since it is unrecoverable no matter what, a sunk cost shouldn’t be factored into any future decisions. However, we’re all familiar with the sunk cost fallacy: behavior driven by a past expenditure that isn’t recoupable, regardless of future actions.