The Spectacular Rise and Fall of the European Super League

The Spectacular Rise and Fall of the European Super League

A Dramatic Introduction and Swift Collapse

Last week, the world of football experienced the dramatic birth and collapse of the European Super League (ESL). Living in Atlanta, the defeat reminded me of the Falcon’s 2017 Superbowl and Greg Norman’s 1986 Masters. On Sunday evening, the formation of the ESL was announced, consisting of 12 “founding clubs” from England, Spain, and Italy. Three other unnamed clubs were soon to join, along with another five teams that would qualify annually for the 20-team competition. However, within 48 hours, the ESL was dead.

Financial Motivations and American Influences

The ESL was introduced with a promise to “deliver excitement and drama never seen before in football,” and it surely delivered, albeit not in the way they had intended. The main motivation behind the formation of the ESL was money. The fifteen founding clubs were guaranteed a place every year, bypassing the need for qualification and relegation and enabling them to secure a larger share of revenues with less risk. Broadcasting rights were expected to generate €4bn annually, nearly double the €2.4bn brought in by the Champions League in the 2018-19 season.

The American sports industry is known for its effective money-producing cartels. Professional sports leagues in the United States act as monopoly-like structures that distribute wealth evenly among a self-selected group. These leagues ensure that teams remain in the league regardless of their performance, challenging the American ideal of meritocracy. The European model, on the other hand, is more capitalistic, with club owners taking risks and investing in the potential for rewards. The ESL sought to impose an American-style cartel on European football to reduce risk and transfer more money to the club owners, similar to the recent restructuring of Formula 1 under Liberty Media’s ownership. As Martin Baumann put it, “We can sell just about anything to the Europeans. Why not our hyper-capitalistic cartel-based pro sports system?”

Hubris, Value Creation, and Fan Backlash

Hubris

The collapse of the ESL can be attributed to hubris. The founders neglected the sport’s business model and Ben Horowitz’s sage advice, “Take care of the People, the Products, and the Profits— IN THAT ORDER.” Their arrogance led them to believe that they could easily impose the American sports system on European clubs without considering the cultural differences and deep-rooted traditions. This hubris resulted in the creation of a league that generated widespread contempt, proving that the incompetence of a few powerful individuals should never be underestimated.

Value Creation

The league’s criteria were not based on being the best in Europe but rather on the wealth of the owners, leading to a lack of value creation. The ESL claimed to be an exhibition of elite football, but without the need for qualification, teams would not have had to try very hard, reducing the value of the competition. Furthermore, the selection of clubs based on their owners’ wealth undermined the very essence of what it means to be the best in Europe. For example, Arsenal, a once-powerful club, is currently struggling in the Premier League and would not have been considered one of Europe’s top teams based on their on-field performance. The ESL destroyed any pretense of value creation by focusing on wealth instead of merit.

Fan Backlash

The European model places emphasis on the fans, the players, and the managers, with club success being the primary focus. The ESL completely disregarded this fundamental aspect of European football, leading to fierce backlash from fans who felt betrayed by their clubs. Protests erupted at stadiums and training grounds, with fans burning effigies of club owners and demanding change. Fans were also united in their disdain for the ESL, with a YouGov poll finding that 79% of British football fans opposed the league, and 68% of them “strongly.” This overwhelming response from fans made it clear that any league that does not prioritize the interests of its supporters is destined for failure.

Its founding members’ swift abandonment of the ESL left the American owners no choice but to follow suit.

The Aftermath and Potential Regulation

The outcome of the ESL debacle led to apologies from club owners and even JP Morgan, who underwrote the league’s formation. However, the real threat now lies in regulation. The British government has launched a review into how football is run, and there is pressure for British clubs to adopt the German community-ownership model, where fans own 51 percent of the club.

As the dust settles, it is clear that football is anything but boring.

Copyright (c) 2021 Marc A. Borrelli

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Every business owner I have ever known, has sought to sell their business at the top of the market. I think this is part of the movement where many are in a constant quest to outdo others. While conceptually I understand this desire, these owners should heed the voices of some sages.

Daniel Kahneman’, “The average investor’s return is significantly lower than the market indices due primarily to market timing.” 

Warren Buffett, “Trying to time the market is a fool’s game.”

Baron Rothschild, “You can have the top 20% and the bottom 20%; I will take the 80% in the middle.”

 

What it takes to Sell at the Top of the Market

If you are determined to sell at the top and are ready to step aside at any time, the only concern is timing. However, if you have other timing considerations, e.g., retire when my business is worth $X, step aside when I am 65, then things are far more complicated.

For the market to be at the top when you reach some predetermine criteria, you need to ensure that the entire economy collaborates with you. To do this, I expect you would need to have the ear of: 

  • the President, 
  • the majority of Congress, 
  • the Chair of the Federal Reserve, the Secretary of the Treasury,  
  • the President of the European Central Bank, 
  • the German Chancellor, 
  • the President of France, 
  • the President of Russia, 
  • the President of the People’s Republic of China, 
  • the heads of the People’s Bank of China, and
  • the leaders of all the leading investment banks and hedge funds worldwide, to name a few. 

Not only would you need their ear, but you would have to persuade them that collaborating with you is in their best interests as well. Furthermore, many of these people would want something in return for a favor, and most of the people I have spoken with would be able to afford the price Vladimir Putin would expect. Finally, I have found any scheme where only one person knows of it but requires many people to ensure its success is bound to fail.

As a result, I would say that trying to sell at the top is a fool’s errand and one that should be abandoned.

 

A Contrarian View

Some have argued that selling at the bottom of the market makes more sense. The rationale is that the business owner will reinvest those assets into other assets whenever they sell their company. Thus if you want to ensure continued wealth accumulation, one should do it at the bottom of the market rather than the top.

To examine this theory, I did a simple analysis. I reviewed four dates and the market conditions. I looked at the Russell 2000 Price Earnings Ratio for those dates and indexed them with the 2000 Price Earnings Ration as the base = 100. Assuming that enterprise value (EV) to EBITDA ratios followed the Russell 2000’s PER, the EV/EBITDA ratio in 2000 was 5x, and the company had an EBITDA of $1 million in each year before the sale, the results are as follows:

Date Market Conditions Russell 2000 PER (Indexed) EV / EBITDA Multiple Proceeds ($k)
12/31/2000 After the Top of the market 100.0 5.0 $5,000
12/31/2005 Near the top of the market 58.6 2.9      $2,929
12/31/2010 Emerging from a recession 52.6 2.6 $2,631
12/31/2015 Middle of a bull market 74.7 3.7 $3,734

I then made a few more simple assumptions:

  • Transaction costs to be 30% comprising intermediary and legal fees of 10% and taxes of 20%.
  • The proceeds are invested in two funds, VFIAX – Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares and VBMFX – Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares as proxies for a general stock and bond market investment.
  • The allocation is 70% into VFIAX and 30% into VBMFX.
  • Any funds withdrawn and any distributions are ignored as they would be the same for both funds.

Below is a chart of the S&P 500 from December 31, 2000, to December 31, 2020 to show the market’s performance over the period.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Following the investments as described above after five, ten and fifteen years the returns were:

Date Initial Value ($k) After 5 yrs ($k) Return (%) After 10 yrs ($k) Return (%) After 15 years ($k) Return (%)
12/31/2000 5,000 4,822 -3.6 4,930 -1.4 7,027 40.5
12/31/2005 2,929 2,993 2.2 4,292 46.5 5,414 84.8
12/31/2010 2,631 3,790 44.0 4,786 81.9    
12/31/2015 3,734 4,643 24.3        

 

So as it can be seen, while selling at the top, provided the greatest wealth after fifteen years, interesting the difference over 10 years was less than 3% between selling at the top and selling just after the bottom. The other points are somewhere in between. Therefore, selling at the top is not the conclusive answer we expected.

 

So what to do?

What I have always advised clients is to build a business that is attractive to buyers and can be sold. The key is to create your own redundancy, so that you can sell it, stay in a non-executive capacity and effectively “coupon clip,” or pass it on to your children or employees. You have many options and if someone comes along and offers you “silly” money, take it. But don’t worry about the “Top of the Market.”

If you want to know if your business is sellable, complete this questionnaire, and if you want help building a sellable business, contact me.

Copyright (c) 2021, Marc A. Borrelli

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Working with many companies looking to grow, I am always surprised how many have not built a financial model that drives growth. I have mentioned before a financial model that drives growth? Here I am basing on Jim Collin’s Profit/X, which he laid out in Good to Great. So then we have to delve into what is Profit/X. This is the key financial metric that drives profitable growth by defining some profit number per some “X” that results in:

Passion. Your employees are passionate about the “X” and excited about increasing it.
Empowerment. Your employees are empowered to make decisions to ensure the baseline Profi/X is met.
Drive. It drives behavior to generate profit and growth.
Discipline. It provides the financial discipline to ensure that the organization remains profitable as it grows.

Thus is it is your Economic Engine that will enable profitable growth.

Many people look for a quick answer in determining Profit/X, but there is no quick answer. It is an iterative process that will get there, but no something you necessarily come up with on the first try.

Profit can be:

  • Gross Profit,
  • Operating Profit,
  • Net Profit,
  • Gross Margin,
  • Operating Margin, or
  • Net Margin,

to name a few.

“X” is very variable and can be:

  • “Product/Service,”
  • Customer,
  • Invoice,
  • lb,
  • pallet,
  • truckload, or
  • plane.

For a better understanding of Profit/X, my video below may help explain it better.

Profit/X

It is well worth your time to develop your Profit/X and get your employees to understand it and embrace it. The discipline it provides combined with the drive and empowerment it delivers makes a very strong economic engine and ensures continued profitability through your growth.

 

Copyright (c) 2021 Marc A. Borrelli

 

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Reflecting on the current employment environment as we emerge from COVID makes me think of “Being Caught Inside When a Big Set Comes Through.” Why?

For those who don’t understand the analogy, it is something that surfers experience when paddling out when a large set of waves appears. The first wave appears in front of you, and it is a monster. So you put your head down and paddle like crazy to get over it before it crashes on you. You paddle up the face of the beast, hoping to get over the top before it breaks and drags back down “over the falls.” You make it, and you look up to see the next monster, larger than the last, bearing down on you. Tired, you have to paddle harder to make it over that one before you end up in the “impact zone.”

2020 was the first wave that appeared. We all put our collective heads down and paddled hard. We made it over. However, talking to many in early 2021, I don’t think we realized how much effort that had taken. Everyone was tired, many a little depressed. But as we looked up, the next wave was there blocking the entire horizon. That wave is the increase in business activity.

Some of my clients are experiencing more business in Q1 than they did in H1 last year. So we need to paddle hard to make it over this one. However, with everyone tired and depressed from the last one, it is getting harder. Everyone is looking for employees right now, but you are asking more of your employees when they are already working flat out and dealing with the stress until you hire.

The Current Situation

As a result, many are thinking about moving. A new survey reported by Fast Company found that 52% of U.S. workers are considering a job change this year, and 44% have plans in place to move. What is interesting when breaking down the data is that:

  • 59% of those whose annual household income is between $50,000 and $75,000 (the middle-income bracket) were thinking about moving.
  • 76% of those under 30 either looking or open to new opportunities.
  • 48% of six-figure salaried workers were planning their change, and 66% of them are feeling more confident about their decision to change jobs than they did six months ago. 
  • 21% of those surveyed felt there were “better opportunities available to [them] at other companies.”

What I have also seen recently is not only that people are considering leaving, but who. The “Who” here are those centers of influence within the organization. To understand that, look at your “shadow org chart,” which shows employees who have disproportionate levels of impact relative to their hierarchical position. To develop one, ask your employees these three questions:

  1. Who energizes you at work? (list four or more people)
  2. Who do you go to for help and advice? (list four or more people)
  3. Who do you go to when a decision needs to be made? (list four or more people)

If key influencer leaves, then many others may decide that the time to move on has come. One executive told me this week that his concern was that if two of their top influencers left, that would be the beginning of the end.

A recent HBR article suggested asking both the departing employee and the rest of your team questions, listening attentively, and acknowledging their concerns. Focus on goals and reassure your team that they’re still important and achievable, and provide them with educational opportunities to show that you care about their long-term effectiveness.

Regardless, those looking or considering a change are looking for:

  • A stable organization and where they are sure they’re growing and changing within that organization. 
  • More pay. Pay is the main factor that entices employees to look for a new role.
  • Work-life balance is also an essential requirement. 68% of employed workers and 43% of women said that remote work and work-from-home options are “very important,” versus 33% of men. 18% want to have more flexible hours in a new job.
  • Finally, the overall work environment is an essential factor.

However, employees say that the most critical factor that keeps them with their employer is engaging work.

Furthermore, a recent study from Ceridian reports that the cost of onboarding a new employee can range from $2,000 to $4,000, and talent expects a rise of 29% to change roles. I have mentioned before that everyone I know is looking for people. So if a 30% increase is required to change, and 50%+ are looking to move, expect salary and wage costs to increase.

The Challenges

So given the above, the critical challenges for organizations today that want to get over that second wave are:

  • Recruiting.
  • Onboarding.
  • Engagement.
  • Growth path.

Recruiting

I have written before about recruiting and ways to make it better and more of a system. However, I think some of the critical factors to consider right now are:

  • Stand out above the crowd. How do you attract the best talent and not just one of the many looking for a new opportunity? To achieve this, you need to produce job ads that create interest in your organization and the opportunity to attract everyone, not only those considering moving. 
  • Using your employees, customers, and suppliers to help find new talent. These people all know you. They know your culture and values. So they are the best people to refer people to you if you are looking. However, first, you have to tell them what you need. If you have a great job ad, share it with them. Encourage your employees to refer people.
  • Employee testimonials on your website. Again I have mentioned this before, but it still amazes me how few companies have employee testimonials on their website. The first thing a prospect will do is go to your website to find out about your organization. Having no employee testimonials is not a good way to entice them. Worse is only having stock photos of employees other than the leadership team.
  • Ensure your reputation is good. Check Glassdoor and other sites to see what has been said about you. While you cannot always change the negative posts, understand them and be willing to address them in an interview.
  • Interviewing. With many people looking to move and the cost of replacing large, make sure that you are getting the right person. A term I prefer is “auditioning.” As many have said, the key is culture and values. Concerning ability, ensure they can do the job. Given how busy everyone is, it might be harder to defend hiring someone capable but requires training. However, getting the wrong person just because they have the skills is a more expensive proposition in the long run.

Onboarding

Onboarding is more critical than ever, and it is more challenging than ever with COVID. However, now you have to ensure that your new members can absorb your culture and values and know your strategy and expectations.

I have discussed onboarding with many CEOs and find that all are struggling to do it effectively. A few thoughts are:

  • Ensure they know your culture and values, and strategy first. With this knowledge, they can make better decisions that benefit the organization.
  • Ensure they understand what is expected of them and have regular check-ins for the first year to ensure that both of you are on the same track.
  • Understand their objectives and needs. These are both professional and personal, but you can build a plan together to help realize them if you know them. That is not to say the company has to give them more but enabling them to see that they have a path to what they seek will show interest on the organization’s part. Right now, several companies are offering an extra day off a month or large bonuses. Figure out what you can offer to make your employees feel appreciated and not cause trouble in your organization.
  • Make sure they feel welcome. Remember, a majority of people regret the move after the first day! Make sure your new employees don’t. 

Engagement

Keeping all employees engaged is key to keeping them, those that you have and those that you are hiring. That means they need to know:

  • The current situation. Your employees need to know where you are today. Now is time for the truth because they do know, just not necessarily from the leadership team. Telling them everything is okay when they see chaos around them means that the leadership team is out of touch with reality, and now is the time to move on.  
  • Where is the company going? Make sure they know the company’s BHAG and 3HAG. Knowing where you are going provides more energy for the task, and right now, we need everyone to paddle.
  • What is their role? Make sure they know their role in the organization. First, make sure they can answer the following:
  1. What do we do, and where am I in the process? 
  2. How do we make money, and what do I do that helps that? 
  3. How will we succeed?
  4. What is most important right now that my team has to do? 
  5. Who must do what? Accountability and reporting roles and 
  6. How can they help? Seek input from them regularly on how to improve processes and actions to perform better. It is incredible how often employees know a better way, but no one ever asks. However, please don’t ignore their feedback because they will never give it again. If you don’t want to use it, explain why.

Growth Plan

As part of the onboarding, understand what they want in their life. If they wish to grow to a new role in the next X years, help them develop a plan. If they are contented at their current position but want to move flexibility, work on that. Understanding their wants and needs shows interest by the company, and that builds attraction. If they feel you care about them, they will care about you. 

Given all that is happening, this is not the time for the Mushroom Theory of Management!

Finally, given that many people are thinking of leaving, if you can afford it, maybe this is the time to prune some of that deadwood.

Good luck paddling out, and I hope you make it through the set.

 

Copyright (c) 2021 Marc A. Borrelli

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Improve Problem-Solving, Information Gathering, and Understanding Intent.

Introduction: The Need for Common Sense

Business leaders often question why employees or direct reports don’t use common sense in decision-making. To help people make better decisions, we must delve into three crucial areas: solving the right problem, gathering all the available information, and understanding the intent.

  1. Solving the Right Problem: The Art of Asking the Right Questions

To prevent solving the wrong problem, make sure to:

1.1 Define the problem yourself

  • Don’t rely on someone else’s definition of the problem.
  • Encourage team members to clarify their understanding of the issue.

1.2 Stay close to the problem

  • Engage with those who have firsthand experience of the problem.
  • Encourage open communication and feedback channels.

1.3 Think about the problem from multiple perspectives

  • Foster a culture of collaboration and diverse thinking.
  • Utilize brainstorming sessions and workshops to explore various angles.
  1. Having all the Available Information: Observing, Orienting, and Analyzing

To gather all available information, consider the following:

2.1 Move the decision-making to the information source

  • Empower frontline employees to make decisions.
  • Implement a decentralized decision-making structure.

2.2 Observe and orient using John Boyd’s OODA loop concept

2.2.1 Observe

  • Continuously gather information to build a comprehensive picture.
  • Encourage team members to ask questions to understand the issue better.
  • Filter out the irrelevant “noise” to focus on critical data.

2.2.2 Orient

  • Foster a culture of self-awareness and understanding of cognitive biases.
  • Provide training and development opportunities to improve analytical skills.
  • Encourage employees to develop mental models that help replace biases and assumptions.
  1. Knowing the “Intent”: Moving Beyond Rules to Foster a Purpose-Driven Culture

Rather than relying on specific rules, understanding the intent behind decisions promotes a broader understanding that helps employees make decisions aligned with the organization’s goals.

3.1 Establish clear organizational values and goals

  • Communicate the company’s mission, vision, and values consistently.
  • Develop a shared understanding of the organization’s strategic direction.

3.2 Promote a culture of trust and empowerment

  • Encourage employees to take ownership of their decisions.
  • Provide support and guidance while allowing for autonomy.

3.3 Develop guidelines and frameworks for decision-making

  • Create decision-making frameworks that emphasize the organization’s intent and values.
  • Offer tools and resources that help employees navigate complex decisions.

Conclusion: Achieving Organizational Clarity and Empowering Decision-Making

Ask yourself these questions to determine if your team is making common-sense decisions:

  • Are they solving the right problem?
  • Do they have all the available information?
  • Do they know the intent, and is there organizational clarity?

If you find something missing in these areas, address it and empower your team to make better decisions. Embrace a culture of collaboration, open communication, and trust, and watch your organization’s decision-making processes improve.

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