As I look at the world with the coronavirus, I am trying to identify second and third-order effects that will affect my members and myself. Also, I am trying to figure out what the new world will look like post coronavirus because as with all major events, behaviors change permanently.

 

March 14th, 2020

At the moment; however, it is too early for such predictions, but here are a few I will make.

 

Coming Baby Boom!

With the sports season canceled and quarantines, we can expect a baby boom in 2021! The size of which I believe will correlate to the length of the quarantine.

 

Increase in Divorce Rates

As couples have to spend more time together, trying to work and manage children without outside distractions and escapes, more people will realize that they really can’t live with their spouse, I would expect a rise in divorce rates, especially among the very wealthy who rarely spend time together anyway.

 

Streaming Wins

The growth in streaming subscriptions has been growing dramatically with more platforms, i.e. Disney and Apple TV coming online. However, with quarantine and no sports, I expect the numbers to grow even further, leading to more people cutting the cord as they will not want to pay for TV. The question is: Will Google Fiber and AT&T Fiber start actively selling and expanding their networks to cope with residential demand with more people working from home? If streaming really takes off, this will be the final nail in the coffin of movie theaters.

 

Coronavirus will devastate Africa and possibly India

Cities like Mumbai, Lagos, and Nairobi are huge clusters of humanity with large populations located in slums. Once Covid-19 infects the population it will spread dramatically in these cities. Since many residents cannot social distance as the slums don’t allow for it the ability to limit the disease will be minimal. As it spreads, their healthcare systems will collapse as they are definitely not able to handle the volume. India may be able to cope, but not as well as China. African cities cannot. Since a large portion of Africa’s middle-aged population died due to the AIDs epidemic, this threatens the old. Africa will be left with a young population and few elders.

 

Pray for a light Hurricane Season

This is not a prediction, but for decades, utility companies in hurricane-prone states have decided it was cheaper to patch up their above-ground wiring networks, rather than incur the cost of burying power lines, etc. As I understand it, the median age of a line worker was 45 five years ago. At that time according to EUCI, over one-half (50%) of utility workers will be eligible to retire between 2020 and 2022. As the work is hard, this group could be susceptible to the virus and if many are sick, there may not be enough to fix a hurricane disaster. In that case, power lines may eventually relocate underground in the south.

 

Copyright (c) 2020, Marc A. Borrelli

0 Comments

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Recent Posts

Do you know your Profit per X to drive dramatic growth?

Do you know your Profit per X to drive dramatic growth?

I recently facilitated a workshop with several CEOs where we worked on the dramatic business growth model components. One of the questions that I had asked them beforehand was, "What is Your Profit/X?" The results showed that there this concept is not clear to many....

Five Ways to Attract Prospective Employees

Five Ways to Attract Prospective Employees

There is a war for talent. How do you attract talent to your company and have them apply for jobs there? You have to show why they should consider you, who you want, what you offer, and how your current employees feel.

Are you killing your firm’s WFH productivity?

Are you killing your firm’s WFH productivity?

Productivity remained during WFH with COVID. However, further analysis found that hourly productivity fell and was compensated for by employees working more hours. What was the culprit – Meetings. Want to increase productivity, have fewer meetings.

EOS is just that, an Operating System

EOS is just that, an Operating System

For those of you who are not aware of EOS, it is the Entrepreneurial Operating System. It seeks to improve businesses by getting six components aligned to enhance business operations. The six are: the vision the people the issues traction - meetings and goals...

What has COVID done to Company Culture?

What has COVID done to Company Culture?

COVID has affected everyone. However, companies need to examine if they have lived their core values during COVID, how they are reinforcing them in a WFH environment, and especially with the onboarding of new hires.

Profit ≠ Cash Flow

Profit ≠ Cash Flow

Knowing how much cash you generate is essential for planning for growth. Too many companies don’t know and when they grow they find they are continually running out of cash. Understand your cash flow generation and how to improve it through improvements in your Cash Conversion Cycle and using the Power of One.

What Are Your Critical and Counter Critical Numbers?

What Are Your Critical and Counter Critical Numbers?

The key to achieving long term goals is to define short term goals that lead you there. Focusing those short term goals around a key metric is essential. However, ensure that the metric will not lead other areas astray by having an appropriate counter critical metric act as a counter balance.

Do You Truly Know Your Core Customer?

Do You Truly Know Your Core Customer?

Knowing the profit of your core customers is key to building a growth model. Many companies have identified core customers that are generating a sub-optimal profit and so they cannot realize the profits they seek. Identifying the correct core customer allows you to generate profits and often operate in “Blue Ocean.”

The Greatest Own Goal or the Greatest Collapse

The Greatest Own Goal or the Greatest Collapse

The European Super League collapsed within days of launch due to hubris and the founder forgetting the key parts of their business model, value creation, sales, and value delivery. The collapse might bring a high price.