What Are Your Critical and Counter Critical Numbers?

What Are Your Critical and Counter Critical Numbers?

I know many business leaders and CEOs who follow the concept of 13-Weeks Sprints, whether they have adapted them from the Rockefeller Habits, EOS, or elsewhere. While 13-Week Sprints are great, many select their “Rocks” without tying them to the three to five corporate objectives for the next year, leading to the company’s 3HAG (3 Year Highly Achievable Goal) and BHAG (Big Hairy Audacious Goal). Thus, why many have ten to twenty “Rocks” that they are tracking and accomplishing, the team still feels like there is no coordination and everyone is going in different directions without alignment. Without alignment, nothing really gets accomplished. To resolve this, in each 13-Week Sprint, you need a Critical Number!

What is the Critical Number?

When determining the three to five corporate objectives for the next year, develop a theme for each quarter. Within that theme, identify the one critical number or metric that needs to be attained to move the company towards its objectives over the next quarter. Examples among my clients include reducing defects in software that they produce, project completion times, customer support response times, and employee utilization. Once the critical metric is identified, determine your “Rocks” for the 13-Weeks Sprint to move that metric to its desired result and rank them. The “Rocks” should be objectives across the organization that all support the achievement of that critical number.

When identifying the critical number for the period, frame it with a sense of urgency. “If we don’t hit this critical number, customer satisfaction will fall and drag down revenue, causing us to lose money and die, so it is essential to achieve this number.” That may seem a little extreme, but by framing it that way, the entire organization realizes its importance and has a ripple effect.

What About Your Counter Critical Number?

So, having identified your critical number and supporting “Rocks,” the following question to answer is, “What is the counter-critical number?” The necessary counter metric ensures that the focus on the key metric for the quarter doesn’t damage the company elsewhere. For example, suppose the critical number is customer support times, and we want to improve efficiency. In hitting that critical metric, we might provide worse customer support but achieve the support times we desire. 

So the appropriate counter-critical number might be customer support satisfaction scores. We need to reduce customer support time but maintain or exceed a customer satisfaction score of X. Thus, the counter number stops the organization from hitting the critical metric at a detriment to other areas of the organization.

Selecting the appropriate counter-critical number needs work, as we often don’t anticipate all the changes that can result from setting the critical metric. Think of metrics for sales teams, as great salespeople are excellent at figuring out how to hit their targets with the least amount of effort and gaming the system. Many sales metrics have resulted in bad outcomes because no one thought through the ramifications of the targets. So get your team together and challenge each other about what you would do to hit the critical number that might damage the company. Do not take pride in the authorship of the critical metric or argue that certain behaviors would never occur within your team. To quote Douglas Adams, “A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools.”

As you work through this, a great rule is the “And” rule. You can only respond to any suggestion by agreeing with at least 10% of it and then improving on it by saying “And.” No “Buts” allowed!

Communicate and Celebrate!

Throughout the quarter, update the organization on its progress towards the critical number and maintaining the counter-critical number. Do this in weekly updates. Suppose you can’t generate the critical and counter-critical metrics weekly. In that case, they are bad proxies because, by the time you report them, it will be too late to correct to implement correcting actions to achieve them.

Also, when establishing the “Rocks,” critical and counter-critical numbers for the quarter, set a celebration budget. If you follow EOS, Verne Harnish, or any other management systems, you are aware of red, amber, green, and super-green targets. Basically, red = miss, amber = close, green = met, super-green = overachieve. The celebration budget should be dependant on the level of achievement, e.g., 

  • if Y% of the “Rocks” are green and none are red, the budget is $X;
  • if all the “Rocks” are green, then the budget is $1.2X; and 
  • if all the “Rocks” are green, but Z% are super-green, then the budget is $1.5X

Have the team, not the leadership, plan the celebrations for the different budgets and share them with the organization. Regardless of what it is, ensure that it’s something that will get everyone excited and motivated to work together to achieve it. If the numbers are reported weekly, everyone knows how they are progressing towards that exciting goal, and if they are missing some, they can adjust to try and achieve them by quarter’s end.

So go and set targets that will lead you to your 3HAG and not trip you up on the way. Celebrate each accomplishment. You will be glad you did.

Copyright (c) 2021 Marc A. Borrelli

Recent Posts

Boosting Common Sense Decision-Making in Your Organization

Boosting Common Sense Decision-Making in Your Organization

Discover how to enhance decision-making in your organization by focusing on three crucial areas: solving the right problem, gathering all the available information, and understanding the intent. Learn to empower your team, foster a purpose-driven culture, and improve organizational clarity for better decision-making.

Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

You can only determine profitability when you know your costs. I’ve discussed before that you should price according to value, not hours. However, you still need to know your costs to understand the minimum pricing and how it is performing. Do you consider each jobs’ profitability when you price new jobs? Do you know what you should be charging to ensure you hit your profit targets? These discussions about a company’s profitability, and what measure drives profit, are critical for your organization.

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

If you were starting your business today, what would you do differently? This thought-provoking question is a valuable exercise, especially when it brings up the idea of “sunk costs” and how they limit us. A sunk cost is a payment or investment that has already been made. Since it is unrecoverable no matter what, a sunk cost shouldn’t be factored into any future decisions. However, we’re all familiar with the sunk cost fallacy: behavior driven by a past expenditure that isn’t recoupable, regardless of future actions.

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Bringing clarity to your organization is a common theme on The Disruption! blog. Defining your business model is a worthwhile exercise for any leadership team. But how do you even begin to bring clarity into your operations? If you’re looking for a place to start, Josh Kaufman’s “Five Parts of Every Business” offers an excellent framework. Kaufman defines five parts of every business model that all flow into the next, breaking it down into Value Creation, Marketing, Sales, Value Delivery, and Finance.

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Bringing in new ideas, thoughts, understanding, and logic is key as your organization faces the challenges of a changing environment. But when you do an ideation session in your organization… how does it go? For so many organizations, many times, after a few ideas have been thrown out and rejected, the thought process slows down very quickly, and a form of hopelessness takes over. How does your organization have better ideation? I’ve come across a new approach with a few teams lately.

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

An uptick in business has begun this quarter, and companies are rushing to hire to meet this surge in demand. What amazes me is how many are so unprepared to hire. Continual recruiting is key to the survival of a company. It isn’t the same thing as hiring—continuous recruiting is building a pipeline of people that you would hire if you needed to fill a position, or “A players” you would hire if they were available.

We All Need Clarity

We All Need Clarity

If your organization is focused on obscurity over clarity, whether intentionally or not, your “A” player employees are vulnerable. There is a looming talent crunch. As we start to emerge from COVID, demand is increasing, and many are scrambling to fill positions to meet that demand. Headhunters and recruiters are soon going to be calling your key “A” employees. Have you been giving them a reason to stay?

Not Another **** Meeting

Not Another **** Meeting

As Leonard Bernstein put it so well, “To achieve great things, two things are needed: a plan and not quite enough time.” Your meetings can be shorter, more fruitful, and engaging, with better outcomes for the organization, employees, and managers. It’s time to examine your meeting rhythms and how you set meeting agendas. This week, I break down daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual, and individual meeting rhythms, with sample agendas for each.

Is Your Company Scalable?

Is Your Company Scalable?

Let’s start here: Why should your company be scalable at all? If your business is scalable, you have business freedom–freedom with time, money, and options. Many business leaders get stuck in the “owner’s trap”, where you need to do everything yourself. Sound familiar? If you want a scalable business that gives you freedom, you need to be intentional about what you sell, and how.

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Companies are gearing up to hire. Unfortunately, many are competing within the same talent pool. Some experts are currently predicting a strong economic recovery starting in May or June. But as the economy booms, there is going to be fierce competition for talent. How will you fare in the looming talent crisis? Your organization should be creating a plan, now, so you can attract the talent you need in the year ahead.

Rethinking ‘Family’ Culture in Business: Fostering Performance and Success

Rethinking ‘Family’ Culture in Business: Fostering Performance and Success

How to Create a High-Performance Culture While Maintaining Family Values

Introduction: The Importance of Company Culture

I strongly believe that company culture is essential to a business’s success. It shapes your identity, attracts employees, and influences behavior. Jim Collins famously stated that the most important thing is “Who is on the Bus.” However, many clients and business owners I talk to claim they have a “Family” culture within their organizations. This response often raises a red flag for me, as it may indicate potential organizational performance issues.

Understanding the ‘Family’ Culture

What does a “Family” culture really mean? At first glance, it may seem like the organization provides a nurturing and supportive environment for its employees. However, the reality is often different, with conflicts arising and employees falling into roles similar to those in a dysfunctional family.

Typical ‘Family’ Roles in Organizations

Some common dysfunctional roles found in organizations with a “Family” culture include the matriarch/patriarch, favored child, second-class child, drunk uncle, bitter sibling, and outcast. These roles can hinder the performance and success of the organization.

Why ‘Family’ Culture Can Be Problematic

Employees often leave organizations due to losing respect for their supervisors. This loss of respect is commonly attributed to the supervisors’ tolerance of “B” and “C” performers. High-performing employees want to be surrounded by other top performers, but in a “Family” culture, poor performance is tolerated, driving away the most talented workers.

Creating a Performance-Oriented Culture

To foster a culture that values performance, organizations should avoid claiming a “Family” culture. Instead, they should focus on specific family values they want to emphasize, such as nurturing, development, or training.

Success Factors for Family Businesses

Successful family businesses often have clear rules for family members who wish to join the company. These rules may include working elsewhere before joining, applying for open positions, possessing the necessary qualifications, being interviewed and selected by non-family members, reporting to non-family members, and understanding that they can be fired for non-performance.

Conclusion: Emphasizing Performance and Values

If you want to create a high-performance culture in your organization, avoid relying on the concept of a “Family” culture. Instead, focus on the specific aspects of family values you want to emphasize and incorporate them into your company culture.

Copyright (c) 2021, Marc A Borrelli

 

Recent Posts

Boosting Common Sense Decision-Making in Your Organization

Boosting Common Sense Decision-Making in Your Organization

Discover how to enhance decision-making in your organization by focusing on three crucial areas: solving the right problem, gathering all the available information, and understanding the intent. Learn to empower your team, foster a purpose-driven culture, and improve organizational clarity for better decision-making.

Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

You can only determine profitability when you know your costs. I’ve discussed before that you should price according to value, not hours. However, you still need to know your costs to understand the minimum pricing and how it is performing. Do you consider each jobs’ profitability when you price new jobs? Do you know what you should be charging to ensure you hit your profit targets? These discussions about a company’s profitability, and what measure drives profit, are critical for your organization.

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

If you were starting your business today, what would you do differently? This thought-provoking question is a valuable exercise, especially when it brings up the idea of “sunk costs” and how they limit us. A sunk cost is a payment or investment that has already been made. Since it is unrecoverable no matter what, a sunk cost shouldn’t be factored into any future decisions. However, we’re all familiar with the sunk cost fallacy: behavior driven by a past expenditure that isn’t recoupable, regardless of future actions.

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Bringing clarity to your organization is a common theme on The Disruption! blog. Defining your business model is a worthwhile exercise for any leadership team. But how do you even begin to bring clarity into your operations? If you’re looking for a place to start, Josh Kaufman’s “Five Parts of Every Business” offers an excellent framework. Kaufman defines five parts of every business model that all flow into the next, breaking it down into Value Creation, Marketing, Sales, Value Delivery, and Finance.

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Bringing in new ideas, thoughts, understanding, and logic is key as your organization faces the challenges of a changing environment. But when you do an ideation session in your organization… how does it go? For so many organizations, many times, after a few ideas have been thrown out and rejected, the thought process slows down very quickly, and a form of hopelessness takes over. How does your organization have better ideation? I’ve come across a new approach with a few teams lately.

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

An uptick in business has begun this quarter, and companies are rushing to hire to meet this surge in demand. What amazes me is how many are so unprepared to hire. Continual recruiting is key to the survival of a company. It isn’t the same thing as hiring—continuous recruiting is building a pipeline of people that you would hire if you needed to fill a position, or “A players” you would hire if they were available.

We All Need Clarity

We All Need Clarity

If your organization is focused on obscurity over clarity, whether intentionally or not, your “A” player employees are vulnerable. There is a looming talent crunch. As we start to emerge from COVID, demand is increasing, and many are scrambling to fill positions to meet that demand. Headhunters and recruiters are soon going to be calling your key “A” employees. Have you been giving them a reason to stay?

Not Another **** Meeting

Not Another **** Meeting

As Leonard Bernstein put it so well, “To achieve great things, two things are needed: a plan and not quite enough time.” Your meetings can be shorter, more fruitful, and engaging, with better outcomes for the organization, employees, and managers. It’s time to examine your meeting rhythms and how you set meeting agendas. This week, I break down daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual, and individual meeting rhythms, with sample agendas for each.

Is Your Company Scalable?

Is Your Company Scalable?

Let’s start here: Why should your company be scalable at all? If your business is scalable, you have business freedom–freedom with time, money, and options. Many business leaders get stuck in the “owner’s trap”, where you need to do everything yourself. Sound familiar? If you want a scalable business that gives you freedom, you need to be intentional about what you sell, and how.

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Companies are gearing up to hire. Unfortunately, many are competing within the same talent pool. Some experts are currently predicting a strong economic recovery starting in May or June. But as the economy booms, there is going to be fierce competition for talent. How will you fare in the looming talent crisis? Your organization should be creating a plan, now, so you can attract the talent you need in the year ahead.

Do You Truly Know Your Core Customer?

Do You Truly Know Your Core Customer?

Who is your Core Customer?

In working with many clients on improving their business and developing a growth model, we soon get into the issue of their “Core Customer.” I have realized that many have not given this much thought and cannot easily define their “Core Customer.” Your Core Customer is the customer you are targeting, the customer that is preferred, and the one that your marketing and sales efforts are focused on. A Core Customer has the following attributes:

  • A real person with wants, needs, and fears.
  • Will buy for optimal profit.
  • Has an unique online identity and behavior.
  • Pays on time, loyal, and refers others.
  • Exists today among your customers

Not knowing your Core Customer is not a terrible problem, as we can quickly work through a session to put a definition in place. However, a more complicated issue is knowing their Core Customer but unable to define their “Economic Engine,” or profitability per customer. Lack of good data is always a severe problem! If you can’t measure something, then your performance is purely an assumption, and down that road is chaos.

Profit per Customer

If you don’t know your profit per customer, the customer you consider your “Core Customer” may generate sub-par profits pulling down the company’s performance. During a recent conversation, a CEO told me their metric was revenue per employee. While that would generate top-line revenue, it does nothing for profit, efficient customer targeting and marketing, or market differentiation. The business adage, “We are losing money on each item, but will make it up on volume,” seems to be the driving force.

Many companies I have worked with cannot tell me the profitability per customer and so work on the assumption that they are performing well, but cannot understand why they cannot scale and have profit and cashflow issues. Also, often their data is corrupted by the “Flaw of Averages.” So to paraphrase the proverb, “First get your data.” Sometimes getting good data on project costs is difficult, but without there cannot be:

  • Knowledge of performance;
  • Plans for improvement;
  • Measurement of improvement.

And “Hope is not a strategy.”

Select the Right Core Customer

Once we have data showing your Core Customer’s profitability, we can determine if they generate optimal profit. Since a requirement of a Core Customer, as mentioned above, if your Core Customer is not generating optimal profit, then there are one of two choices:

  1. Change your economic model so that they do, or
  2. Change your Core Customer.

When examining the data, many companies have found that the companies they were targeting as their “Core Customers” were their less profitable customers and ones that everyone in the market was fighting over. Targeting a different segment of customers that generated optimal profit could increase its profitability and differentiate itself from its competition, a great “Blue Ocean” strategy.

Lake Truck Lines, a Gravitas client, was focused on large customers. However, when analyzing its data, Lake Truck Lines realized that everyone was targeting those customers so there was pricing pressure and low margins. By make mid-sized customers its Core Customer, the company was able to operate with less competition and generate the optimal profit per customer. Similarly with Build Direct, focusing on young women seeking to do DIY, it was able to realize a much higher margin and operate in “Blue Ocean” waters compared to when it was focused on supplying general contractors.

The time spent analyzing your clients, their profitability, and your Blue Ocean possibilities can result in you operating at higher margins with less competition.

Profit / X

I have discussed the “Economic Engine” before, but it is the concept of “Profit/X,” Profit/X is the crucial part of your strategy, and it must:

  • Tightly aligns with your BHAG®
  • Be the fundamental economic engine of your business
  • Be a single overarching KPI to scale your business
  • It must impact revenue while controlling cost.
  • More X must be desirable.
  • It must be unique within the industry – you have to differentiate yourself from your competition.

What is critical is finding a Profit/X that is unique within your industry. If you choose the same Profit/X as everyone else, you are all competing on the same drivers, and you cannot differentiate yourself from your competition. Having identified our Core Customer, the appropriate Profit/X can be identified. Picking the wrong Profit/X given your Core Customer again will lead to sub-optimal results. These two concepts are interconnected and for you to achieve the best results, you need to determine both and have them connected.

Having the Right Profit/X

If your Profit/X is defined as profit per employee, you have only three ways to achieve this: increase the price, improve employee performance or cut the product’s quality. Since price should be driven by value creation, not employee profitability, raising prices may be difficult. We do not want to cut value delivery, and driving employees harder is no recipe for success. Thus a better metric may be profit per customer.

With customer size, if you are servicing large customers it may require longer larger projects compared to mid-sized companies. If mid-sized companies have more set up and administrative costs then your Profit/X must be different between the two.

There are many examples of Profit/X from Southwest Airlines’ profit per plane to a dry cleaner who measured it by profit per delivery truck. The key is to find the one that drives your business and will also differentiate yourself.

Conclusion

Many CEOs and Business Owners are salespeople and are not interested in digging into the financials and getting to the data I have discussed above. However, the effort is well worth it, as once you have a clear understanding of where you are, you can:

  • Target marketing towards your Core Customer;
  • Differentiate yourself from your competition;
  • Ensure that all projects, services, or products meeting your Profit/X to ensure profitability; and 
  • Position yourself for growth and profitability. 

Get your CFO, your team, and a coach and spend a day or two to determine the ideal results. The payoff will be huge.

 

Copyright (c) 2021 Marc A. Borrelli

The Spectacular Rise and Fall of the European Super League

The Spectacular Rise and Fall of the European Super League

A Dramatic Introduction and Swift Collapse

Last week, the world of football experienced the dramatic birth and collapse of the European Super League (ESL). Living in Atlanta, the defeat reminded me of the Falcon’s 2017 Superbowl and Greg Norman’s 1986 Masters. On Sunday evening, the formation of the ESL was announced, consisting of 12 “founding clubs” from England, Spain, and Italy. Three other unnamed clubs were soon to join, along with another five teams that would qualify annually for the 20-team competition. However, within 48 hours, the ESL was dead.

Financial Motivations and American Influences

The ESL was introduced with a promise to “deliver excitement and drama never seen before in football,” and it surely delivered, albeit not in the way they had intended. The main motivation behind the formation of the ESL was money. The fifteen founding clubs were guaranteed a place every year, bypassing the need for qualification and relegation and enabling them to secure a larger share of revenues with less risk. Broadcasting rights were expected to generate €4bn annually, nearly double the €2.4bn brought in by the Champions League in the 2018-19 season.

The American sports industry is known for its effective money-producing cartels. Professional sports leagues in the United States act as monopoly-like structures that distribute wealth evenly among a self-selected group. These leagues ensure that teams remain in the league regardless of their performance, challenging the American ideal of meritocracy. The European model, on the other hand, is more capitalistic, with club owners taking risks and investing in the potential for rewards. The ESL sought to impose an American-style cartel on European football to reduce risk and transfer more money to the club owners, similar to the recent restructuring of Formula 1 under Liberty Media’s ownership. As Martin Baumann put it, “We can sell just about anything to the Europeans. Why not our hyper-capitalistic cartel-based pro sports system?”

Hubris, Value Creation, and Fan Backlash

Hubris

The collapse of the ESL can be attributed to hubris. The founders neglected the sport’s business model and Ben Horowitz’s sage advice, “Take care of the People, the Products, and the Profits— IN THAT ORDER.” Their arrogance led them to believe that they could easily impose the American sports system on European clubs without considering the cultural differences and deep-rooted traditions. This hubris resulted in the creation of a league that generated widespread contempt, proving that the incompetence of a few powerful individuals should never be underestimated.

Value Creation

The league’s criteria were not based on being the best in Europe but rather on the wealth of the owners, leading to a lack of value creation. The ESL claimed to be an exhibition of elite football, but without the need for qualification, teams would not have had to try very hard, reducing the value of the competition. Furthermore, the selection of clubs based on their owners’ wealth undermined the very essence of what it means to be the best in Europe. For example, Arsenal, a once-powerful club, is currently struggling in the Premier League and would not have been considered one of Europe’s top teams based on their on-field performance. The ESL destroyed any pretense of value creation by focusing on wealth instead of merit.

Fan Backlash

The European model places emphasis on the fans, the players, and the managers, with club success being the primary focus. The ESL completely disregarded this fundamental aspect of European football, leading to fierce backlash from fans who felt betrayed by their clubs. Protests erupted at stadiums and training grounds, with fans burning effigies of club owners and demanding change. Fans were also united in their disdain for the ESL, with a YouGov poll finding that 79% of British football fans opposed the league, and 68% of them “strongly.” This overwhelming response from fans made it clear that any league that does not prioritize the interests of its supporters is destined for failure.

Its founding members’ swift abandonment of the ESL left the American owners no choice but to follow suit.

The Aftermath and Potential Regulation

The outcome of the ESL debacle led to apologies from club owners and even JP Morgan, who underwrote the league’s formation. However, the real threat now lies in regulation. The British government has launched a review into how football is run, and there is pressure for British clubs to adopt the German community-ownership model, where fans own 51 percent of the club.

As the dust settles, it is clear that football is anything but boring.

Copyright (c) 2021 Marc A. Borrelli

Recent Posts

Boosting Common Sense Decision-Making in Your Organization

Boosting Common Sense Decision-Making in Your Organization

Discover how to enhance decision-making in your organization by focusing on three crucial areas: solving the right problem, gathering all the available information, and understanding the intent. Learn to empower your team, foster a purpose-driven culture, and improve organizational clarity for better decision-making.

Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

You can only determine profitability when you know your costs. I’ve discussed before that you should price according to value, not hours. However, you still need to know your costs to understand the minimum pricing and how it is performing. Do you consider each jobs’ profitability when you price new jobs? Do you know what you should be charging to ensure you hit your profit targets? These discussions about a company’s profitability, and what measure drives profit, are critical for your organization.

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

If you were starting your business today, what would you do differently? This thought-provoking question is a valuable exercise, especially when it brings up the idea of “sunk costs” and how they limit us. A sunk cost is a payment or investment that has already been made. Since it is unrecoverable no matter what, a sunk cost shouldn’t be factored into any future decisions. However, we’re all familiar with the sunk cost fallacy: behavior driven by a past expenditure that isn’t recoupable, regardless of future actions.

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Bringing clarity to your organization is a common theme on The Disruption! blog. Defining your business model is a worthwhile exercise for any leadership team. But how do you even begin to bring clarity into your operations? If you’re looking for a place to start, Josh Kaufman’s “Five Parts of Every Business” offers an excellent framework. Kaufman defines five parts of every business model that all flow into the next, breaking it down into Value Creation, Marketing, Sales, Value Delivery, and Finance.

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Bringing in new ideas, thoughts, understanding, and logic is key as your organization faces the challenges of a changing environment. But when you do an ideation session in your organization… how does it go? For so many organizations, many times, after a few ideas have been thrown out and rejected, the thought process slows down very quickly, and a form of hopelessness takes over. How does your organization have better ideation? I’ve come across a new approach with a few teams lately.

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

An uptick in business has begun this quarter, and companies are rushing to hire to meet this surge in demand. What amazes me is how many are so unprepared to hire. Continual recruiting is key to the survival of a company. It isn’t the same thing as hiring—continuous recruiting is building a pipeline of people that you would hire if you needed to fill a position, or “A players” you would hire if they were available.

We All Need Clarity

We All Need Clarity

If your organization is focused on obscurity over clarity, whether intentionally or not, your “A” player employees are vulnerable. There is a looming talent crunch. As we start to emerge from COVID, demand is increasing, and many are scrambling to fill positions to meet that demand. Headhunters and recruiters are soon going to be calling your key “A” employees. Have you been giving them a reason to stay?

Not Another **** Meeting

Not Another **** Meeting

As Leonard Bernstein put it so well, “To achieve great things, two things are needed: a plan and not quite enough time.” Your meetings can be shorter, more fruitful, and engaging, with better outcomes for the organization, employees, and managers. It’s time to examine your meeting rhythms and how you set meeting agendas. This week, I break down daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual, and individual meeting rhythms, with sample agendas for each.

Is Your Company Scalable?

Is Your Company Scalable?

Let’s start here: Why should your company be scalable at all? If your business is scalable, you have business freedom–freedom with time, money, and options. Many business leaders get stuck in the “owner’s trap”, where you need to do everything yourself. Sound familiar? If you want a scalable business that gives you freedom, you need to be intentional about what you sell, and how.

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Companies are gearing up to hire. Unfortunately, many are competing within the same talent pool. Some experts are currently predicting a strong economic recovery starting in May or June. But as the economy booms, there is going to be fierce competition for talent. How will you fare in the looming talent crisis? Your organization should be creating a plan, now, so you can attract the talent you need in the year ahead.

When Should I Sell My Business?

When Should I Sell My Business?

Every business owner I have ever known, has sought to sell their business at the top of the market. I think this is part of the movement where many are in a constant quest to outdo others. While conceptually I understand this desire, these owners should heed the voices of some sages.

Daniel Kahneman’, “The average investor’s return is significantly lower than the market indices due primarily to market timing.” 

Warren Buffett, “Trying to time the market is a fool’s game.”

Baron Rothschild, “You can have the top 20% and the bottom 20%; I will take the 80% in the middle.”

 

What it takes to Sell at the Top of the Market

If you are determined to sell at the top and are ready to step aside at any time, the only concern is timing. However, if you have other timing considerations, e.g., retire when my business is worth $X, step aside when I am 65, then things are far more complicated.

For the market to be at the top when you reach some predetermine criteria, you need to ensure that the entire economy collaborates with you. To do this, I expect you would need to have the ear of: 

  • the President, 
  • the majority of Congress, 
  • the Chair of the Federal Reserve, the Secretary of the Treasury,  
  • the President of the European Central Bank, 
  • the German Chancellor, 
  • the President of France, 
  • the President of Russia, 
  • the President of the People’s Republic of China, 
  • the heads of the People’s Bank of China, and
  • the leaders of all the leading investment banks and hedge funds worldwide, to name a few. 

Not only would you need their ear, but you would have to persuade them that collaborating with you is in their best interests as well. Furthermore, many of these people would want something in return for a favor, and most of the people I have spoken with would be able to afford the price Vladimir Putin would expect. Finally, I have found any scheme where only one person knows of it but requires many people to ensure its success is bound to fail.

As a result, I would say that trying to sell at the top is a fool’s errand and one that should be abandoned.

 

A Contrarian View

Some have argued that selling at the bottom of the market makes more sense. The rationale is that the business owner will reinvest those assets into other assets whenever they sell their company. Thus if you want to ensure continued wealth accumulation, one should do it at the bottom of the market rather than the top.

To examine this theory, I did a simple analysis. I reviewed four dates and the market conditions. I looked at the Russell 2000 Price Earnings Ratio for those dates and indexed them with the 2000 Price Earnings Ration as the base = 100. Assuming that enterprise value (EV) to EBITDA ratios followed the Russell 2000’s PER, the EV/EBITDA ratio in 2000 was 5x, and the company had an EBITDA of $1 million in each year before the sale, the results are as follows:

Date Market Conditions Russell 2000 PER (Indexed) EV / EBITDA Multiple Proceeds ($k)
12/31/2000 After the Top of the market 100.0 5.0 $5,000
12/31/2005 Near the top of the market 58.6 2.9      $2,929
12/31/2010 Emerging from a recession 52.6 2.6 $2,631
12/31/2015 Middle of a bull market 74.7 3.7 $3,734

I then made a few more simple assumptions:

  • Transaction costs to be 30% comprising intermediary and legal fees of 10% and taxes of 20%.
  • The proceeds are invested in two funds, VFIAX – Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares and VBMFX – Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares as proxies for a general stock and bond market investment.
  • The allocation is 70% into VFIAX and 30% into VBMFX.
  • Any funds withdrawn and any distributions are ignored as they would be the same for both funds.

Below is a chart of the S&P 500 from December 31, 2000, to December 31, 2020 to show the market’s performance over the period.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Following the investments as described above after five, ten and fifteen years the returns were:

Date Initial Value ($k) After 5 yrs ($k) Return (%) After 10 yrs ($k) Return (%) After 15 years ($k) Return (%)
12/31/2000 5,000 4,822 -3.6 4,930 -1.4 7,027 40.5
12/31/2005 2,929 2,993 2.2 4,292 46.5 5,414 84.8
12/31/2010 2,631 3,790 44.0 4,786 81.9    
12/31/2015 3,734 4,643 24.3        

 

So as it can be seen, while selling at the top, provided the greatest wealth after fifteen years, interesting the difference over 10 years was less than 3% between selling at the top and selling just after the bottom. The other points are somewhere in between. Therefore, selling at the top is not the conclusive answer we expected.

 

So what to do?

What I have always advised clients is to build a business that is attractive to buyers and can be sold. The key is to create your own redundancy, so that you can sell it, stay in a non-executive capacity and effectively “coupon clip,” or pass it on to your children or employees. You have many options and if someone comes along and offers you “silly” money, take it. But don’t worry about the “Top of the Market.”

If you want to know if your business is sellable, complete this questionnaire, and if you want help building a sellable business, contact me.

Copyright (c) 2021, Marc A. Borrelli

Recent Posts

Boosting Common Sense Decision-Making in Your Organization

Boosting Common Sense Decision-Making in Your Organization

Discover how to enhance decision-making in your organization by focusing on three crucial areas: solving the right problem, gathering all the available information, and understanding the intent. Learn to empower your team, foster a purpose-driven culture, and improve organizational clarity for better decision-making.

Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

You can only determine profitability when you know your costs. I’ve discussed before that you should price according to value, not hours. However, you still need to know your costs to understand the minimum pricing and how it is performing. Do you consider each jobs’ profitability when you price new jobs? Do you know what you should be charging to ensure you hit your profit targets? These discussions about a company’s profitability, and what measure drives profit, are critical for your organization.

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

If you were starting your business today, what would you do differently? This thought-provoking question is a valuable exercise, especially when it brings up the idea of “sunk costs” and how they limit us. A sunk cost is a payment or investment that has already been made. Since it is unrecoverable no matter what, a sunk cost shouldn’t be factored into any future decisions. However, we’re all familiar with the sunk cost fallacy: behavior driven by a past expenditure that isn’t recoupable, regardless of future actions.

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Bringing clarity to your organization is a common theme on The Disruption! blog. Defining your business model is a worthwhile exercise for any leadership team. But how do you even begin to bring clarity into your operations? If you’re looking for a place to start, Josh Kaufman’s “Five Parts of Every Business” offers an excellent framework. Kaufman defines five parts of every business model that all flow into the next, breaking it down into Value Creation, Marketing, Sales, Value Delivery, and Finance.

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Bringing in new ideas, thoughts, understanding, and logic is key as your organization faces the challenges of a changing environment. But when you do an ideation session in your organization… how does it go? For so many organizations, many times, after a few ideas have been thrown out and rejected, the thought process slows down very quickly, and a form of hopelessness takes over. How does your organization have better ideation? I’ve come across a new approach with a few teams lately.

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

An uptick in business has begun this quarter, and companies are rushing to hire to meet this surge in demand. What amazes me is how many are so unprepared to hire. Continual recruiting is key to the survival of a company. It isn’t the same thing as hiring—continuous recruiting is building a pipeline of people that you would hire if you needed to fill a position, or “A players” you would hire if they were available.

We All Need Clarity

We All Need Clarity

If your organization is focused on obscurity over clarity, whether intentionally or not, your “A” player employees are vulnerable. There is a looming talent crunch. As we start to emerge from COVID, demand is increasing, and many are scrambling to fill positions to meet that demand. Headhunters and recruiters are soon going to be calling your key “A” employees. Have you been giving them a reason to stay?

Not Another **** Meeting

Not Another **** Meeting

As Leonard Bernstein put it so well, “To achieve great things, two things are needed: a plan and not quite enough time.” Your meetings can be shorter, more fruitful, and engaging, with better outcomes for the organization, employees, and managers. It’s time to examine your meeting rhythms and how you set meeting agendas. This week, I break down daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual, and individual meeting rhythms, with sample agendas for each.

Is Your Company Scalable?

Is Your Company Scalable?

Let’s start here: Why should your company be scalable at all? If your business is scalable, you have business freedom–freedom with time, money, and options. Many business leaders get stuck in the “owner’s trap”, where you need to do everything yourself. Sound familiar? If you want a scalable business that gives you freedom, you need to be intentional about what you sell, and how.

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Companies are gearing up to hire. Unfortunately, many are competing within the same talent pool. Some experts are currently predicting a strong economic recovery starting in May or June. But as the economy booms, there is going to be fierce competition for talent. How will you fare in the looming talent crisis? Your organization should be creating a plan, now, so you can attract the talent you need in the year ahead.