Do You Know Where Your Clients Are and What They Want?

Do You Know Where Your Clients Are and What They Want?

Working on an event with a not for profit that I recently joined, I posed two questions, “Who is our audience?” and “What do they want?” I figured that these were easy questions and should quickly have responses; however, I was shocked, because they couldn’t be answered. How can you put on a successful event when you don’t know who you are marketing it to and what they really want. It made me think about how COVID is dramatically changing who our customers are, what they buy, and where.

We all know that a large amount of business has moved online, but many companies have yet to fully pivot to the point they can provide both information and delivery of their products and services in an online format that meets or exceeds their customers’ expectations. During a recent conversation with an executive of a training company, he was discussing how they working to move all their training online, but dealing with the challenges of how to deliver it in a way that the attendees got its full and would enjoy the experience. In my own business, I know many clients are getting tired of Zoom calls and want to return to in-person meetings, but only when it is safe. The challenge is how to make it interesting and keep people engaged?

If we look across the economy, many industries are finding the delivery of, and demand for, their products are changing. We all experienced the toilet paper shortage when the lockdown started. Why? From my understanding, the toilet manufacturers had most of their production set up to service commercial clients, the biggest users. However, with the lockdown all that commercial demand transferred to residential demand, which the manufacturers were not set up to produce or deliver.  Likewise, with the liquor business were sales were transferred from restaurants to retail, again disrupting supply chains.

A recent article in Bloomberg noted that:

  • SK-II beauty brand produced by Procter & Gamble Co. has seen sales decline by double digits. The reason, most sales were done at airport duty-free shops. With travel effectively on hold, the airports are empty and no one is buying. Thus the delivery needs to change.
  • Mondelez International Inc. said that sales at its gum and candy division plunged 33% primarily due to falling sales of gum. Why? Gum consumption is very dependent on people being away from their homes. It is used to freshen breath for meetings or first dates – activities have been effectively halted for the moment. Thus, demand has evaporated.
  • Starbucks announced that U.S. traffic slumped 52% from a year earlier; however, the average total bill, rose 25% over the same period. The reason was that shops were closed and people are not out, but when they are they are bundling orders for everyone at home. While bundling of orders makes the economics of delivery orders more attractive, it requires skill to allocate labor and tailor operations to ensure big-batch orders are fresh and hot.
  • Molson Coors Beverage Co. reported revenue down 23% over last year. During the COVID period, party-friendly kegs sales disappeared; however, sales of 12-ounce cans exploded. The issue for Molson was getting enough aluminum for the cans to meet demand, which causes the fall in revenue. The company is working with suppliers to ensure the availability of the packaging materials needed to accommodate the stay-at-home lifestyle.
  • As we all know U.S. tourism has been hit badly with COVID, but this is taking a toll on many retailers that have tourist-centric locations, e.g. Tiffanies and Macys on Fifth Avenue. However, it is also affecting stores like Carter’s Inc., the baby, and kids’ clothing chain that has seen tourist-centric locations revenue fall by 20% while non-tourist centric locations saw a rise in revenue of 15%. The issue for Carter’s is that tourist-centric locations account for about 20% of revenue. Thus the company is facing issues with delivery and is working closely with retailers like Wal-Mart, Target, and Amazon.com to help offset the decline.

Therefore, if you are experiencing either an increase or fall in revenue, spend time to understand why? Is it that customer tastes/requirements or channel delivery has changed and plan accordingly. As I have said before, I expect us to be living with COVID for at least a year, so be prepared for the long haul and recognize that many customers’ behavior changes may not revert when it is all over.

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Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

You can only determine profitability when you know your costs. I’ve discussed before that you should price according to value, not hours. However, you still need to know your costs to understand the minimum pricing and how it is performing. Do you consider each jobs’ profitability when you price new jobs? Do you know what you should be charging to ensure you hit your profit targets? These discussions about a company’s profitability, and what measure drives profit, are critical for your organization.

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

If you were starting your business today, what would you do differently? This thought-provoking question is a valuable exercise, especially when it brings up the idea of “sunk costs” and how they limit us. A sunk cost is a payment or investment that has already been made. Since it is unrecoverable no matter what, a sunk cost shouldn’t be factored into any future decisions. However, we’re all familiar with the sunk cost fallacy: behavior driven by a past expenditure that isn’t recoupable, regardless of future actions.

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Bringing clarity to your organization is a common theme on The Disruption! blog. Defining your business model is a worthwhile exercise for any leadership team. But how do you even begin to bring clarity into your operations? If you’re looking for a place to start, Josh Kaufman’s “Five Parts of Every Business” offers an excellent framework. Kaufman defines five parts of every business model that all flow into the next, breaking it down into Value Creation, Marketing, Sales, Value Delivery, and Finance.

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Bringing in new ideas, thoughts, understanding, and logic is key as your organization faces the challenges of a changing environment. But when you do an ideation session in your organization… how does it go? For so many organizations, many times, after a few ideas have been thrown out and rejected, the thought process slows down very quickly, and a form of hopelessness takes over. How does your organization have better ideation? I’ve come across a new approach with a few teams lately.

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

An uptick in business has begun this quarter, and companies are rushing to hire to meet this surge in demand. What amazes me is how many are so unprepared to hire. Continual recruiting is key to the survival of a company. It isn’t the same thing as hiring—continuous recruiting is building a pipeline of people that you would hire if you needed to fill a position, or “A players” you would hire if they were available.

We All Need Clarity

We All Need Clarity

If your organization is focused on obscurity over clarity, whether intentionally or not, your “A” player employees are vulnerable. There is a looming talent crunch. As we start to emerge from COVID, demand is increasing, and many are scrambling to fill positions to meet that demand. Headhunters and recruiters are soon going to be calling your key “A” employees. Have you been giving them a reason to stay?

Not Another **** Meeting

Not Another **** Meeting

As Leonard Bernstein put it so well, “To achieve great things, two things are needed: a plan and not quite enough time.” Your meetings can be shorter, more fruitful, and engaging, with better outcomes for the organization, employees, and managers. It’s time to examine your meeting rhythms and how you set meeting agendas. This week, I break down daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual, and individual meeting rhythms, with sample agendas for each.

Is Your Company Scalable?

Is Your Company Scalable?

Let’s start here: Why should your company be scalable at all? If your business is scalable, you have business freedom–freedom with time, money, and options. Many business leaders get stuck in the “owner’s trap”, where you need to do everything yourself. Sound familiar? If you want a scalable business that gives you freedom, you need to be intentional about what you sell, and how.

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Companies are gearing up to hire. Unfortunately, many are competing within the same talent pool. Some experts are currently predicting a strong economic recovery starting in May or June. But as the economy booms, there is going to be fierce competition for talent. How will you fare in the looming talent crisis? Your organization should be creating a plan, now, so you can attract the talent you need in the year ahead.

The Dangers of Hubris in the COVID-19 Crisis: Learning from History and Embracing Humility

The Dangers of Hubris in the COVID-19 Crisis: Learning from History and Embracing Humility

Introduction

Hubris has been a destructive force throughout history, and it seems to be rearing its ugly head again in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis. As we grapple with the ongoing pandemic, it is crucial to recognize the role hubris plays in decision-making and its potential impact on our lives and organizations. In this blog post, we will explore the concept of hubris, how it affects our response to COVID-19, and how we can learn from it to avoid making similar mistakes in our personal and professional lives.

What is Hubris?

Hubris is defined as excessive pride or arrogance that results from an inflated sense of self-worth or importance. It often leads to overconfidence, which can have disastrous consequences. Historically, hubris has been a driving force behind many conflicts, including World War II. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, hubris is manifesting itself in the denial of scientific evidence and expertise, as well as a disregard for the advice of public health officials.

COVID-19 and the Resurgence of Hubris

As COVID-19 cases continue to rise, the role of hubris in our response to the pandemic becomes increasingly evident. Some elected officials and members of the public are choosing to ignore the advice of public health experts and scientists, instead relying on their own beliefs and opinions. This is a dangerous approach, as it can lead to decisions that are not based on the most accurate and up-to-date information.

The problem with this mindset is that opinions are not facts. While everyone is entitled to their opinion, opinions are personal expressions of feelings or thoughts that may not be grounded in data or evidence. Conversely, facts are statements that can be proven true or false based on supporting data or evidence. By ignoring scientific evidence and expert advice, we are putting ourselves at greater risk and prolonging the devastating impact of the pandemic.

The Human and Economic Costs of Hubris

The denial of scientific evidence and expertise in the face of COVID-19 has had severe consequences regarding human lives and economic costs. As of now, over 130,000 people have died in the U.S. due to COVID-19, and this number continues to rise. In addition to the immediate loss of life, long-term health consequences exist for those who survive the virus. Research shows that survivors may experience strokes, blood clotting, heart, lung, and neurological damage. Furthermore, studies on SARS, a COVID precursor, indicate that psychiatric morbidities and chronic fatigue may persist for years after recovery.

These long-term health consequences will also have a lasting economic impact. As survivors struggle with increased health issues, the economic effects of COVID-19 will continue well beyond the development of a vaccine or the achievement of herd immunity. The cost of hubris in this context is immense, with severe repercussions for both human lives and the economy.

Learning from the COVID-19 Crisis: Avoiding Hubris in Our Own Lives

As we navigate the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, it is essential to recognize the dangers of hubris and take steps to avoid it in our personal and professional lives. Here are some suggestions for combating hubris:

  1. Be open to new information and be willing to change your mind.
    When presented with new data or evidence, be open to reevaluating your beliefs and opinions. This flexibility will allow you to make more informed decisions.
  2. Recognize the limits of your own knowledge and expertise.
    No one is an expert in everything, so it is crucial to acknowledge when you are out of your depth and seek advice from those with relevant expertise.
  3. Emphasize facts over opinions.
    When making decisions, prioritize factual information and evidence over personal feelings or beliefs. This will help ensure that your choices are grounded in reality and have a solid foundation.
  4. Foster a culture of humility and learning.
    In your personal and professional life, create an environment where people feel comfortable admitting and learning from their mistakes. This can help prevent the development of hubris and encourage continuous growth and improvement.
  5. Encourage open dialogue and collaboration.
    Promote open communication and collaboration among team members, colleagues, and friends. This can help ensure that a variety of perspectives and expertise are considered, ultimately leading to better decision-making.
  6. Be aware of confirmation bias.
    We all have a tendency to seek out information that confirms our existing beliefs while disregarding evidence that contradicts them. Be conscious of this tendency and actively work to challenge your own biases.
  7. Practice empathy and compassion.
    Take the time to put yourself in others’ shoes and consider their perspectives and feelings. This can help to counteract the arrogance and self-centeredness that often accompany hubris.
  8. Reflect on past experiences and learn from them.
    Regularly review your past decisions and actions, identifying instances where hubris may have played a role. Use these experiences as learning opportunities to prevent similar mistakes in the future.

Conclusion

The resurgence of hubris during the COVID-19 crisis serves as a stark reminder of the dangers of arrogance and overconfidence. By recognizing the role of hubris in our decision-making processes and taking steps to avoid it, we can minimize its destructive consequences on our lives and organizations. As we continue to navigate the pandemic, let us use this opportunity to learn from our mistakes and strive for humility, open-mindedness, and fact-based decision-making.

 

Copyright (c) 2020, Marc A. Borrelli

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Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

You can only determine profitability when you know your costs. I’ve discussed before that you should price according to value, not hours. However, you still need to know your costs to understand the minimum pricing and how it is performing. Do you consider each jobs’ profitability when you price new jobs? Do you know what you should be charging to ensure you hit your profit targets? These discussions about a company’s profitability, and what measure drives profit, are critical for your organization.

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

If you were starting your business today, what would you do differently? This thought-provoking question is a valuable exercise, especially when it brings up the idea of “sunk costs” and how they limit us. A sunk cost is a payment or investment that has already been made. Since it is unrecoverable no matter what, a sunk cost shouldn’t be factored into any future decisions. However, we’re all familiar with the sunk cost fallacy: behavior driven by a past expenditure that isn’t recoupable, regardless of future actions.

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Bringing clarity to your organization is a common theme on The Disruption! blog. Defining your business model is a worthwhile exercise for any leadership team. But how do you even begin to bring clarity into your operations? If you’re looking for a place to start, Josh Kaufman’s “Five Parts of Every Business” offers an excellent framework. Kaufman defines five parts of every business model that all flow into the next, breaking it down into Value Creation, Marketing, Sales, Value Delivery, and Finance.

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Bringing in new ideas, thoughts, understanding, and logic is key as your organization faces the challenges of a changing environment. But when you do an ideation session in your organization… how does it go? For so many organizations, many times, after a few ideas have been thrown out and rejected, the thought process slows down very quickly, and a form of hopelessness takes over. How does your organization have better ideation? I’ve come across a new approach with a few teams lately.

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

An uptick in business has begun this quarter, and companies are rushing to hire to meet this surge in demand. What amazes me is how many are so unprepared to hire. Continual recruiting is key to the survival of a company. It isn’t the same thing as hiring—continuous recruiting is building a pipeline of people that you would hire if you needed to fill a position, or “A players” you would hire if they were available.

We All Need Clarity

We All Need Clarity

If your organization is focused on obscurity over clarity, whether intentionally or not, your “A” player employees are vulnerable. There is a looming talent crunch. As we start to emerge from COVID, demand is increasing, and many are scrambling to fill positions to meet that demand. Headhunters and recruiters are soon going to be calling your key “A” employees. Have you been giving them a reason to stay?

Not Another **** Meeting

Not Another **** Meeting

As Leonard Bernstein put it so well, “To achieve great things, two things are needed: a plan and not quite enough time.” Your meetings can be shorter, more fruitful, and engaging, with better outcomes for the organization, employees, and managers. It’s time to examine your meeting rhythms and how you set meeting agendas. This week, I break down daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual, and individual meeting rhythms, with sample agendas for each.

Is Your Company Scalable?

Is Your Company Scalable?

Let’s start here: Why should your company be scalable at all? If your business is scalable, you have business freedom–freedom with time, money, and options. Many business leaders get stuck in the “owner’s trap”, where you need to do everything yourself. Sound familiar? If you want a scalable business that gives you freedom, you need to be intentional about what you sell, and how.

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Companies are gearing up to hire. Unfortunately, many are competing within the same talent pool. Some experts are currently predicting a strong economic recovery starting in May or June. But as the economy booms, there is going to be fierce competition for talent. How will you fare in the looming talent crisis? Your organization should be creating a plan, now, so you can attract the talent you need in the year ahead.

A Coming Fall in Productivity

A Coming Fall in Productivity

Due to the move to Work from Home, which began in China on January 23, in Italy on March 9, much of Europe by March 15, and the US, with California, on March 16. By the end of March, 77% of work was performed remotely in North America, the most significant amount of any continent.

Aternity, through its Global Remote Work Productivity Tracker, has analyzed data to determine if employees have become more productive Working from Home. Overall North American productivity increased 23%; however that this was due to Canada. The United States experienced a 7.2% decrease in productivity.

However, while productivity has fallen, what I am hearing from clients and colleagues is that they are working harder and longer than ever before. These stories are not just hearsay. According to data from NordVPN, U.S. homebound employees are logging three hours more per day on the job than before the city and state-wide lockdown. As a result, we are working longer and are less productive. That is because we are overworked, stressed.

While companies sent employees home, the companies had not prepared for employees working from home. The employees did not have the tools they needed, e.g., workspace, VPN access, Internet bandwidth, let alone employees having the space, lack of distractions, and stress to perform. Lines of responsibility got confused. Many leaders did not rise to the occasion, and many who were previously not considered leaders, did, further confusing the traditional environment. Many situations did not have solutions that prior experience provided, increasing confusion. Finally, many companies didn’t have an appropriate culture and were not checking in to see how employees were doing personally and what they needed to succeed.

The bosses at the Canadian federal agency Parks Canada put it succinctly in a Tweet. The Tweet had an accompanying set of principles for working remotely under Covid-19, namely:

  1. You are not “working from home,” you are “at your home, during a crisis, trying to work.”
  2. Your personal physical, mental, and emotional health is far more important than anything else right now.
  3. You should not try to compensate for lost productivity by working longer hours.
  4. You will kind to yourself and not judge how you are coping based on how you see others coping.
  5. You will be kind to others and not judge how they are coping based on how you are coping.
  6. Your team’s success will not be measured the same way it was when things were normal.

Enough companies have not articulated these principals.

At the beginning of the crisis, the adrenalin rush energized many. As an HBR article noted, a CEO said that the crisis allowed unusual freedom of movement, both strategically and as a leader. The relief from budget constraints, the suspension of market expectations, and the welcome escape from the conformity of the daily routine all contributed to his unexpected reaction to working during the pandemic. However, the adrenaline-fueled pace of the initial crisis response spluttered. Problems were more complicated and exhausting. The glory faded. Fuses were short.

As Jay Forte recently said to my Vistage Groups, ask yourself about your leadership approach, and your employees about your response that affected engagement and retention:

  • What Worked?

  • What Didn’t Work?

I expect many of us would learn a lot from this that could lead to improved performance.

As we open up and people return to work, I expect we will see a further fall in productivity. Some business leaders are pushing for a return to the office because they believe productivity will increase; it may result in the long term, but not immediately. Many have been working long hours under lots of stress, not just work stress, and the pace is unsustainable. Were are entering a “Regression Phase” where people get tired, lose their sense of purpose, start fighting about the small stuff, and forget to do basic things like eat or drink — or they eat and drink too much. Even with opening up, many of the stresses will not disappear, and the regression phase will continue. Many people are depressed and not even aware of it. Robert Klitzman, at Columbia University, estimates that about 50 percent of the U.S. population is experiencing depressive symptoms. If CEOs and business leaders don’t start paying attention to the condition of their employees, productivity will fall even further.

One client informed me that they are now encouraging employees to be furloughed for a week or two just to turn off and relax. By being furlough, they still get insurance benefits, can claim unemployment, including the federal government’s $600 weekly payment, and have not used up vacation days. Cisco has realized the issue and gave its 75,000 employees the day off on Friday to recharge over a now four day weekend.

Also, when everyone is back, look at:

  • Disrupting the team, change players, reassign roles. I have often reorganized my office and home because a reorganization makes it feel new. Disrupting the team does the same thing and provides new energy.

  • Calibrate your team’s emotions. Understand where they are concerning “safety,” “stress,” and “family pressure.”

  • Aim for the future. Think about where you are going to provide a new purpose more than just surviving.

Therefore, it up to CEOs and business leaders to look at their workforce and determine what is working, what isn’t, and how to recharge them and reduce their stress. Empathy is the greatest tool you have in your toolbox, and use effectively will lead to much much more significant results. As I have said before, how you behave during this period will define your organization for the next decade. That will affect who you can recruit and retain. So remember the moral of the tortoise and hare, “you can be more successful by doing things slowly and steadily than by acting quickly and carelessly.”

Copyright (c) 2020. Marc A. Borrelli

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Boosting Common Sense Decision-Making in Your Organization

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Discover how to enhance decision-making in your organization by focusing on three crucial areas: solving the right problem, gathering all the available information, and understanding the intent. Learn to empower your team, foster a purpose-driven culture, and improve organizational clarity for better decision-making.

Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

You can only determine profitability when you know your costs. I’ve discussed before that you should price according to value, not hours. However, you still need to know your costs to understand the minimum pricing and how it is performing. Do you consider each jobs’ profitability when you price new jobs? Do you know what you should be charging to ensure you hit your profit targets? These discussions about a company’s profitability, and what measure drives profit, are critical for your organization.

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

If you were starting your business today, what would you do differently? This thought-provoking question is a valuable exercise, especially when it brings up the idea of “sunk costs” and how they limit us. A sunk cost is a payment or investment that has already been made. Since it is unrecoverable no matter what, a sunk cost shouldn’t be factored into any future decisions. However, we’re all familiar with the sunk cost fallacy: behavior driven by a past expenditure that isn’t recoupable, regardless of future actions.

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Bringing clarity to your organization is a common theme on The Disruption! blog. Defining your business model is a worthwhile exercise for any leadership team. But how do you even begin to bring clarity into your operations? If you’re looking for a place to start, Josh Kaufman’s “Five Parts of Every Business” offers an excellent framework. Kaufman defines five parts of every business model that all flow into the next, breaking it down into Value Creation, Marketing, Sales, Value Delivery, and Finance.

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Bringing in new ideas, thoughts, understanding, and logic is key as your organization faces the challenges of a changing environment. But when you do an ideation session in your organization… how does it go? For so many organizations, many times, after a few ideas have been thrown out and rejected, the thought process slows down very quickly, and a form of hopelessness takes over. How does your organization have better ideation? I’ve come across a new approach with a few teams lately.

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

An uptick in business has begun this quarter, and companies are rushing to hire to meet this surge in demand. What amazes me is how many are so unprepared to hire. Continual recruiting is key to the survival of a company. It isn’t the same thing as hiring—continuous recruiting is building a pipeline of people that you would hire if you needed to fill a position, or “A players” you would hire if they were available.

We All Need Clarity

We All Need Clarity

If your organization is focused on obscurity over clarity, whether intentionally or not, your “A” player employees are vulnerable. There is a looming talent crunch. As we start to emerge from COVID, demand is increasing, and many are scrambling to fill positions to meet that demand. Headhunters and recruiters are soon going to be calling your key “A” employees. Have you been giving them a reason to stay?

Not Another **** Meeting

Not Another **** Meeting

As Leonard Bernstein put it so well, “To achieve great things, two things are needed: a plan and not quite enough time.” Your meetings can be shorter, more fruitful, and engaging, with better outcomes for the organization, employees, and managers. It’s time to examine your meeting rhythms and how you set meeting agendas. This week, I break down daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual, and individual meeting rhythms, with sample agendas for each.

Is Your Company Scalable?

Is Your Company Scalable?

Let’s start here: Why should your company be scalable at all? If your business is scalable, you have business freedom–freedom with time, money, and options. Many business leaders get stuck in the “owner’s trap”, where you need to do everything yourself. Sound familiar? If you want a scalable business that gives you freedom, you need to be intentional about what you sell, and how.

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Companies are gearing up to hire. Unfortunately, many are competing within the same talent pool. Some experts are currently predicting a strong economic recovery starting in May or June. But as the economy booms, there is going to be fierce competition for talent. How will you fare in the looming talent crisis? Your organization should be creating a plan, now, so you can attract the talent you need in the year ahead.

A letter to my Vistage Groups

A letter to my Vistage Groups

I have just sent the following to my Vistage members; however, I think all could benefit from it.

 

Hi all,

The Coronavirus situation is changing by the minute. While I sent out what I would like to do at our meeting, I wanted to give you my thoughts on what is needed now.

 

The Situation

The real situation in the US is unknown due to the lack of testing. At present, we have done about 14k tests, and we have 1,700 cases. What this tells me is that the situation is far worse, and the actual number of cases is far higher. As much as I hate to say it, right now, nothing from the Administration is believable as everything coming out of it is either misleading or evasive. I would listen to Dr. Anthony Fauci of NIH or any other credible public health officials as it pertains to the virus. Concerning the economy, look at the bond market. As a result of the Administration’s behavior, states are taking matters into their own hands as we have seen, and saw with Georgia yesterday.

 

Leadership

This is a time of crisis, and as the leader of the organization, you need to step up and lead. As I said in my newsletter last week, leadership is hard, and it is about those you lead! First, your employees are scared – they don’t know what is happening or how vulnerable they are. I was grocery shopping yesterday, and not only are they out of toilet paper and hand sanitizer, but all the ramen noodles were gone, and so were the beans (all types). So you need to reassure them. That, in my opinion, is being honest – do not lie or minimize the situation, you will lose all credibility but be confident, what the potential impact is on your organization, what steps you take to plan and that you will keep them updated. Also, look for their input for suggestions, you are all in this together. For an excellent example, read Winston Churchill’s speech to the House of Commons, June 4, 1940, after Dunkirk.

 

Have a Plan

Now is the time to plan. You need to determine what you will do at each stage now. At what point do I cut various costs, people, stop operations, etc. It is easier to plan before the full panic hits. Work with your leadership team to think this through. The other members of your Vistage Group and I are always here to help, just reach out!

 

The Impact on You

Given how far behind we are, I expect within two weeks, we could see an Italian solution imposed. If that is the case, I would suggest you read this article to understand what is the implication. Regardless, the economic impact is going to be significant. Things to consider:

  • Work From Home policies, while we may be able to work from home, we need to consider if our clients and suppliers can Work From Home. If they can’t, you won’t be able to work for customers or get what you need from suppliers.

  • Cancellation of events. What impact does this have on you? How does it affect your clients and suppliers? Can you create virtual events for your customers?

  • Cash. How much do you have, how big is your line, and what is your burn rate. What can you do to reduce the burn rate without affecting quality and delivery?

  • Communication. I have talked above about communication with your employees. However, I would communicate with clients and bankers as both hate surprises. With clients, look to see how you can work with them through this and be proactive. Everyone is going to be reducing costs as the economic toll hits. If your customer doesn’t know you or understand the value you bring, you are out.

  • Private Equity (PEGs). Since the 2008 crash private equity has acquired an enormous number of companies in the US, many of these are now your customers. However, as we know and I have written about, PEGs have leveraged all these companies to increase their returns. With a substantial downturn, many of these will not be able to meet their bank covenants, and many may file for bankruptcy. Many of the larger PEG owned companies and public companies have taken on large amounts of junk bond debt and may not survive. Look at your client base and see what vulnerabilities you have.

  • Oil States. The current oil price of WTI Crude is $31.80 which is way below what is required for the fracking industry to be profitable. Given the high capital needs of the fracking industry, I think this is over. For regular oil companies, the price is too low to be profitable for many wells and they will be capped. Thus, oil companies are suffering, so economic pain is coming to all oil field support companies. This will affect all local industries and communities. Thus, if you have clients in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico or North Dakota, you may want to consider how stable they are.

  • Small companies. Many small companies may not survive this downturn due to a lack of cash. Look at your client and suppliers to see where vulnerabilities lie.

  • Financing. Hopefully, you aren’t relying on any soon, as I think the market will dry up as everyone waits to see the fallout. Like I said, keep in touch with your banker and don’t surprise them.

  • M&A. I think we can expect M&A activity to fall significantly this year. If that is in your plan as a seller, I would plan alternative scenarios. If you are looking to acquire, there may be some great bargains if you have cash.

  • Supply chains. While we all know of the issues from China, Europe is now shutting down. Understand those effects on your company. Further, the Administration’s ban on European visitors will cause air passenger traffic to fall significantly. As a result, I see the passenger airlines curtailing flights. The effect is that 70% of all trade cargo comes in passenger aircraft. So even if your supplier/customer is operating, the transport of products will be difficult.

I have been talking with a lot of you over the week. As your chair, I am here 24/7 to talk through any ideas you have, or just to listen if you need someone to talk to. It is going to hard, and it is very hard at the top! You can reach me on my cell or by video conference. In any event, I plan to be calling you all regularly to check-in.

Finally, apologies if this ruined your weekend, but better to be prepared than reactionary.

Kind regards,
Marc

 

Copyright (c) 2020, Marc A. Borrelli

Recent Posts

Boosting Common Sense Decision-Making in Your Organization

Boosting Common Sense Decision-Making in Your Organization

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Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

You can only determine profitability when you know your costs. I’ve discussed before that you should price according to value, not hours. However, you still need to know your costs to understand the minimum pricing and how it is performing. Do you consider each jobs’ profitability when you price new jobs? Do you know what you should be charging to ensure you hit your profit targets? These discussions about a company’s profitability, and what measure drives profit, are critical for your organization.

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

If you were starting your business today, what would you do differently? This thought-provoking question is a valuable exercise, especially when it brings up the idea of “sunk costs” and how they limit us. A sunk cost is a payment or investment that has already been made. Since it is unrecoverable no matter what, a sunk cost shouldn’t be factored into any future decisions. However, we’re all familiar with the sunk cost fallacy: behavior driven by a past expenditure that isn’t recoupable, regardless of future actions.

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Bringing clarity to your organization is a common theme on The Disruption! blog. Defining your business model is a worthwhile exercise for any leadership team. But how do you even begin to bring clarity into your operations? If you’re looking for a place to start, Josh Kaufman’s “Five Parts of Every Business” offers an excellent framework. Kaufman defines five parts of every business model that all flow into the next, breaking it down into Value Creation, Marketing, Sales, Value Delivery, and Finance.

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Bringing in new ideas, thoughts, understanding, and logic is key as your organization faces the challenges of a changing environment. But when you do an ideation session in your organization… how does it go? For so many organizations, many times, after a few ideas have been thrown out and rejected, the thought process slows down very quickly, and a form of hopelessness takes over. How does your organization have better ideation? I’ve come across a new approach with a few teams lately.

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

An uptick in business has begun this quarter, and companies are rushing to hire to meet this surge in demand. What amazes me is how many are so unprepared to hire. Continual recruiting is key to the survival of a company. It isn’t the same thing as hiring—continuous recruiting is building a pipeline of people that you would hire if you needed to fill a position, or “A players” you would hire if they were available.

We All Need Clarity

We All Need Clarity

If your organization is focused on obscurity over clarity, whether intentionally or not, your “A” player employees are vulnerable. There is a looming talent crunch. As we start to emerge from COVID, demand is increasing, and many are scrambling to fill positions to meet that demand. Headhunters and recruiters are soon going to be calling your key “A” employees. Have you been giving them a reason to stay?

Not Another **** Meeting

Not Another **** Meeting

As Leonard Bernstein put it so well, “To achieve great things, two things are needed: a plan and not quite enough time.” Your meetings can be shorter, more fruitful, and engaging, with better outcomes for the organization, employees, and managers. It’s time to examine your meeting rhythms and how you set meeting agendas. This week, I break down daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual, and individual meeting rhythms, with sample agendas for each.

Is Your Company Scalable?

Is Your Company Scalable?

Let’s start here: Why should your company be scalable at all? If your business is scalable, you have business freedom–freedom with time, money, and options. Many business leaders get stuck in the “owner’s trap”, where you need to do everything yourself. Sound familiar? If you want a scalable business that gives you freedom, you need to be intentional about what you sell, and how.

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Companies are gearing up to hire. Unfortunately, many are competing within the same talent pool. Some experts are currently predicting a strong economic recovery starting in May or June. But as the economy booms, there is going to be fierce competition for talent. How will you fare in the looming talent crisis? Your organization should be creating a plan, now, so you can attract the talent you need in the year ahead.

Your Challenger Group

Your Challenger Group

Listening to a recent Tim Ferris podcast, Tim was interviewing Adam Grant and asking him about his success, which is impressive. Adam said that he used Challenger Groups for success. According to Grant, “Your challenge network should be the people who will tell you that you’re not quite where you need to be. These are the people that will push you because they care about helping you get better.” Also, “So if in the last six months somebody has given you really harsh feedback, you’ve probably done everything in your power to drop them from your life. In the short run, that might feel good, it might help with your motivation, but it destroys your opportunity to learn. I think we all need to embrace that challenge network if we want to reach our potential.”

Reflecting on this, (Apologies for unabashed self-promotion as I run Vistage groups), that is what a Vistage group does. As I tell prospective members, we are here to:

  • Challenge your assumptions

  • Prevent your hubris

  • Provide advice; and

  • Have carefrontational conversations – we will tell you, your baby is ugly.

The group is not dependent upon you for a paycheck, or income, or anything other than to know you will help them if they help you. Many prospects tell me, I don’t need such a group, I have friends, a board, customers, or father/father-in-law who does this. However, let’s examine these groups.

 

Friends

Our friends are our Cheerleaders and Supporters. They help us when we are down and tell us how wonderful we are. They are unlikely to have carefrontational conversations with us. If they keep telling us that our baby is ugly and our ideas are wrong, the friendship will not last.

 

Customers

Really!! You will tell your customers that your largest customer has just declared bankruptcy, and you are not sure you have enough cash to last a week! Or, that your product is failing and you are considering the following three plans to fix it, which do they like?

 

Your Board

Your board is the right place, but how often do you meet, and how often can you go to them. Also, can you go to them when you don’t know? Can you bring a personal crisis to them? If you are having a personal crisis as a member did where his wife gave him an ultimatum on their marriage, you know he was not focused on his business, but need a place to talk this through.

 

Your Father/Father-in-Law

Well, one issue you can’t bring to your father or father-in-law is that you want to fire or get rid of him. A couple of other areas that may be difficult are:

  • What if you want a divorce?

  • What to do about getting rid of your sibling?

  • What about killing off the division, product, they started?

 

So where to?

Find a group of people that have no reliance on your for a paycheck or income, and who will help you if you help them, but will challenge you and enter into those confrontational conversations when needed. If not Vistage, then some similar group, but one that will do the above, as Vistage members on average outperform their non-Vistage peers by 2.2x revenue growth, and higher profit margins.

 

© 2019 Marc Borrelli All Rights Reserved

Recent Posts

Boosting Common Sense Decision-Making in Your Organization

Boosting Common Sense Decision-Making in Your Organization

Discover how to enhance decision-making in your organization by focusing on three crucial areas: solving the right problem, gathering all the available information, and understanding the intent. Learn to empower your team, foster a purpose-driven culture, and improve organizational clarity for better decision-making.

Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

You can only determine profitability when you know your costs. I’ve discussed before that you should price according to value, not hours. However, you still need to know your costs to understand the minimum pricing and how it is performing. Do you consider each jobs’ profitability when you price new jobs? Do you know what you should be charging to ensure you hit your profit targets? These discussions about a company’s profitability, and what measure drives profit, are critical for your organization.

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

If you were starting your business today, what would you do differently? This thought-provoking question is a valuable exercise, especially when it brings up the idea of “sunk costs” and how they limit us. A sunk cost is a payment or investment that has already been made. Since it is unrecoverable no matter what, a sunk cost shouldn’t be factored into any future decisions. However, we’re all familiar with the sunk cost fallacy: behavior driven by a past expenditure that isn’t recoupable, regardless of future actions.

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Bringing clarity to your organization is a common theme on The Disruption! blog. Defining your business model is a worthwhile exercise for any leadership team. But how do you even begin to bring clarity into your operations? If you’re looking for a place to start, Josh Kaufman’s “Five Parts of Every Business” offers an excellent framework. Kaufman defines five parts of every business model that all flow into the next, breaking it down into Value Creation, Marketing, Sales, Value Delivery, and Finance.

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Bringing in new ideas, thoughts, understanding, and logic is key as your organization faces the challenges of a changing environment. But when you do an ideation session in your organization… how does it go? For so many organizations, many times, after a few ideas have been thrown out and rejected, the thought process slows down very quickly, and a form of hopelessness takes over. How does your organization have better ideation? I’ve come across a new approach with a few teams lately.

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

An uptick in business has begun this quarter, and companies are rushing to hire to meet this surge in demand. What amazes me is how many are so unprepared to hire. Continual recruiting is key to the survival of a company. It isn’t the same thing as hiring—continuous recruiting is building a pipeline of people that you would hire if you needed to fill a position, or “A players” you would hire if they were available.

We All Need Clarity

We All Need Clarity

If your organization is focused on obscurity over clarity, whether intentionally or not, your “A” player employees are vulnerable. There is a looming talent crunch. As we start to emerge from COVID, demand is increasing, and many are scrambling to fill positions to meet that demand. Headhunters and recruiters are soon going to be calling your key “A” employees. Have you been giving them a reason to stay?

Not Another **** Meeting

Not Another **** Meeting

As Leonard Bernstein put it so well, “To achieve great things, two things are needed: a plan and not quite enough time.” Your meetings can be shorter, more fruitful, and engaging, with better outcomes for the organization, employees, and managers. It’s time to examine your meeting rhythms and how you set meeting agendas. This week, I break down daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual, and individual meeting rhythms, with sample agendas for each.

Is Your Company Scalable?

Is Your Company Scalable?

Let’s start here: Why should your company be scalable at all? If your business is scalable, you have business freedom–freedom with time, money, and options. Many business leaders get stuck in the “owner’s trap”, where you need to do everything yourself. Sound familiar? If you want a scalable business that gives you freedom, you need to be intentional about what you sell, and how.

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Companies are gearing up to hire. Unfortunately, many are competing within the same talent pool. Some experts are currently predicting a strong economic recovery starting in May or June. But as the economy booms, there is going to be fierce competition for talent. How will you fare in the looming talent crisis? Your organization should be creating a plan, now, so you can attract the talent you need in the year ahead.

Can’t Solve a Problem, Maybe Its The Wrong Problem

Can’t Solve a Problem, Maybe Its The Wrong Problem

Often we have a problem we are trying to solve. In our life, at work, in design, product, or solution. However, if you are struggling, you are probably trying to answer the wrong question. Dr. Paul MacCready, one of the best mechanical engineers of the 20th century, said it, “The problem is we don’t understand the problem.” Inversion is an excellent tool because it exposes errors and problems that are not immediately obvious. What if the opposite is true? What if I focus on the reverse of this situation? Instead of seeking how to do something, ask what the opposite is and who do I ensure that I don’t do that. The stoics visualized the worst of all situations, i.e., death so that they would appreciate life. Groundbreaking artists invert the status quo to succeed. Effective leaders ask, “What stops us succeeding” as much as they chase the skills that accelerate it.

More often, we should try Inversion. Inversion is a crucial skill that nearly all great thinkers use to their advantage. Carl Jacobi, the German mathematician, who was known for his ability to solve hard problems by following a strategy of man “Man muss immer umkehren” or, “invert, always invert.” Jacobi believed that to clarify, your thinking was to restate the problem in inverse form. He found that if he wrote down the opposite of the problem, he was trying to solve the solution came to him more easily.

Charlie Munger took Jacobi’s lesson and introduced it to value investors. When deciding on the purchase of a stock is to estimate intrinsic value in the long run, we typically ask the following questions:

  1. How much will I make?
  2. How long will it take, or what are the growth drivers are there?
  3. What is the stock worth, or what is a fair discount rate?
  4. What is the future growth rate?

All these questions are forward-looking, and if the prospects are there, we are about to dive in. However, Jacobi and Munger would invert the problem. What is the inverted question? Well, if the problem is, “How much money I can make?” the inversion is “How do not lose money?” Or, as Warren Buffett says, “Rule No 1: Never Lose Money. Rule No. 2: Never Forget Rule 1.” Thus if we look to questions about how to prevent losing money instead of making money, our four items above become:

  1. How can I make money?
  2. How much is the stock worth?
  3. What can go wrong?
  4. What is the market-implied discount rate?
  5. What is the market-implied growth rate?

By focusing on the inverted questions, we get a better idea if this is a good stock. Listening to a recent interview with Steven Schwarzman, CEO of The Blackstone Group, he has applied Munger’s approach to investing. The concept of inversion is applicable across many areas.

In 1959 Henry Kremer, a British industry magnate, left a haunting question: “Can an airplane fly powered only by the pilot’s body power?” Kremer believed it was possible, so he offered the Kremer prize – £50,000 ($1.3 million today) to the first person to build a human-powered plane that could fly a figure eight around two markers one half-mile apart. Furthermore, he offered an additional £100,000 ($2.5 million today) for the first person to fly a human-powered plane across the English Channel. Kremer effectively offered the first X-Prize.

Over twenty years, dozens of teams tried and failed to build an airplane that could meet the requirements. It looked impossible. However, MacCready decided to try and win the prize. As he looked at the problem, why the existing solutions failed, and how teams iterated their planes, he came to the startling realization that people were solving the wrong question. “The problem is,” he said, “that we don’t understand the problem.”
MacCready’s insight was that everyone would spend over a year building an airplane on conjecture and theory without the grounding of empirical tests. With much fanfare, they would wheel it out for a test flight, and minutes later, a year’s worth of work would smash into the ground. Even successful flights ended in a couple of meters, with the pilot physically exhausted. With a new single data point, the team would work for another year to rebuild, retest, relearn. Resulting progress was slow, but everyone accepted that it was just how it was.

The problem was the problem. If he inverted the problem, Paul realized that the problem was not succeeding at human-powered flight, as that was a red-herring. The issue was minimizing the time not flying due to failure. He came up with a new problem: can you build a plane that could be fixed and flying again in hours, not months. Making a plane with Mylar, aluminum tubing, and wire, Paul succeeded.

The first airplane didn’t work. It was too flimsy. But, because the problem Paul set out to solve was creating a plane he could fix in hours, Paul was able to iterate quickly. Flying three or four different planes in a single day, the rebuild, retest, relearn cycle went from months and years to hours and days.

Paul MacCready got involved eighteen years following the challenge and changed the understanding of the problem to be solved. Within half a year, MacCready’s Gossamer Condor flew 2,172 meters to win the prize. Just over a year later, the Gossamer Albatross successfully crossed the Channel.

What’s the take-away? When you are solving a difficult problem, re-ask the question. To quote Jacobi again, “invert, always invert.” If the issue you are trying to solve involves creating a magnum opus, you are answering the wrong problem.

A Vistage Group is a great way to have a Peer group challenge you to look at the problem from a different perspective. In our issue processing process, after asking questions and before getting input from the members, we always check, “Is the problem asked the actual problem faced?”

 

© 2019 Marc Borrelli All Rights Reserved

Recent Posts

Boosting Common Sense Decision-Making in Your Organization

Boosting Common Sense Decision-Making in Your Organization

Discover how to enhance decision-making in your organization by focusing on three crucial areas: solving the right problem, gathering all the available information, and understanding the intent. Learn to empower your team, foster a purpose-driven culture, and improve organizational clarity for better decision-making.

Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

Do You Understand Your Costs to Ensure Profitability?

You can only determine profitability when you know your costs. I’ve discussed before that you should price according to value, not hours. However, you still need to know your costs to understand the minimum pricing and how it is performing. Do you consider each jobs’ profitability when you price new jobs? Do you know what you should be charging to ensure you hit your profit targets? These discussions about a company’s profitability, and what measure drives profit, are critical for your organization.

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

If you were starting your business today, what would you do differently? This thought-provoking question is a valuable exercise, especially when it brings up the idea of “sunk costs” and how they limit us. A sunk cost is a payment or investment that has already been made. Since it is unrecoverable no matter what, a sunk cost shouldn’t be factored into any future decisions. However, we’re all familiar with the sunk cost fallacy: behavior driven by a past expenditure that isn’t recoupable, regardless of future actions.

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Bringing clarity to your organization is a common theme on The Disruption! blog. Defining your business model is a worthwhile exercise for any leadership team. But how do you even begin to bring clarity into your operations? If you’re looking for a place to start, Josh Kaufman’s “Five Parts of Every Business” offers an excellent framework. Kaufman defines five parts of every business model that all flow into the next, breaking it down into Value Creation, Marketing, Sales, Value Delivery, and Finance.

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Ideation! Harder Than It Sounds

Bringing in new ideas, thoughts, understanding, and logic is key as your organization faces the challenges of a changing environment. But when you do an ideation session in your organization… how does it go? For so many organizations, many times, after a few ideas have been thrown out and rejected, the thought process slows down very quickly, and a form of hopelessness takes over. How does your organization have better ideation? I’ve come across a new approach with a few teams lately.

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

Recruit, Recruit, Recruit!

An uptick in business has begun this quarter, and companies are rushing to hire to meet this surge in demand. What amazes me is how many are so unprepared to hire. Continual recruiting is key to the survival of a company. It isn’t the same thing as hiring—continuous recruiting is building a pipeline of people that you would hire if you needed to fill a position, or “A players” you would hire if they were available.

We All Need Clarity

We All Need Clarity

If your organization is focused on obscurity over clarity, whether intentionally or not, your “A” player employees are vulnerable. There is a looming talent crunch. As we start to emerge from COVID, demand is increasing, and many are scrambling to fill positions to meet that demand. Headhunters and recruiters are soon going to be calling your key “A” employees. Have you been giving them a reason to stay?

Not Another **** Meeting

Not Another **** Meeting

As Leonard Bernstein put it so well, “To achieve great things, two things are needed: a plan and not quite enough time.” Your meetings can be shorter, more fruitful, and engaging, with better outcomes for the organization, employees, and managers. It’s time to examine your meeting rhythms and how you set meeting agendas. This week, I break down daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annual, and individual meeting rhythms, with sample agendas for each.

Is Your Company Scalable?

Is Your Company Scalable?

Let’s start here: Why should your company be scalable at all? If your business is scalable, you have business freedom–freedom with time, money, and options. Many business leaders get stuck in the “owner’s trap”, where you need to do everything yourself. Sound familiar? If you want a scalable business that gives you freedom, you need to be intentional about what you sell, and how.

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Are you ready for the Talent Crunch?

Companies are gearing up to hire. Unfortunately, many are competing within the same talent pool. Some experts are currently predicting a strong economic recovery starting in May or June. But as the economy booms, there is going to be fierce competition for talent. How will you fare in the looming talent crisis? Your organization should be creating a plan, now, so you can attract the talent you need in the year ahead.