What Are Your Critical and Counter Critical Numbers?

What Are Your Critical and Counter Critical Numbers?

I know many business leaders and CEOs who follow the concept of 13-Weeks Sprints, whether they have adapted them from the Rockefeller Habits, EOS, or elsewhere. While 13-Week Sprints are great, many select their “Rocks” without tying them to the three to five corporate objectives for the next year, leading to the company’s 3HAG (3 Year Highly Achievable Goal) and BHAG (Big Hairy Audacious Goal). Thus, why many have ten to twenty “Rocks” that they are tracking and accomplishing, the team still feels like there is no coordination and everyone is going in different directions without alignment. Without alignment, nothing really gets accomplished. To resolve this, in each 13-Week Sprint, you need a Critical Number!

What is the Critical Number?

When determining the three to five corporate objectives for the next year, develop a theme for each quarter. Within that theme, identify the one critical number or metric that needs to be attained to move the company towards its objectives over the next quarter. Examples among my clients include reducing defects in software that they produce, project completion times, customer support response times, and employee utilization. Once the critical metric is identified, determine your “Rocks” for the 13-Weeks Sprint to move that metric to its desired result and rank them. The “Rocks” should be objectives across the organization that all support the achievement of that critical number.

When identifying the critical number for the period, frame it with a sense of urgency. “If we don’t hit this critical number, customer satisfaction will fall and drag down revenue, causing us to lose money and die, so it is essential to achieve this number.” That may seem a little extreme, but by framing it that way, the entire organization realizes its importance and has a ripple effect.

What About Your Counter Critical Number?

So, having identified your critical number and supporting “Rocks,” the following question to answer is, “What is the counter-critical number?” The necessary counter metric ensures that the focus on the key metric for the quarter doesn’t damage the company elsewhere. For example, suppose the critical number is customer support times, and we want to improve efficiency. In hitting that critical metric, we might provide worse customer support but achieve the support times we desire. 

So the appropriate counter-critical number might be customer support satisfaction scores. We need to reduce customer support time but maintain or exceed a customer satisfaction score of X. Thus, the counter number stops the organization from hitting the critical metric at a detriment to other areas of the organization.

Selecting the appropriate counter-critical number needs work, as we often don’t anticipate all the changes that can result from setting the critical metric. Think of metrics for sales teams, as great salespeople are excellent at figuring out how to hit their targets with the least amount of effort and gaming the system. Many sales metrics have resulted in bad outcomes because no one thought through the ramifications of the targets. So get your team together and challenge each other about what you would do to hit the critical number that might damage the company. Do not take pride in the authorship of the critical metric or argue that certain behaviors would never occur within your team. To quote Douglas Adams, “A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools.”

As you work through this, a great rule is the “And” rule. You can only respond to any suggestion by agreeing with at least 10% of it and then improving on it by saying “And.” No “Buts” allowed!

Communicate and Celebrate!

Throughout the quarter, update the organization on its progress towards the critical number and maintaining the counter-critical number. Do this in weekly updates. Suppose you can’t generate the critical and counter-critical metrics weekly. In that case, they are bad proxies because, by the time you report them, it will be too late to correct to implement correcting actions to achieve them.

Also, when establishing the “Rocks,” critical and counter-critical numbers for the quarter, set a celebration budget. If you follow EOS, Verne Harnish, or any other management systems, you are aware of red, amber, green, and super-green targets. Basically, red = miss, amber = close, green = met, super-green = overachieve. The celebration budget should be dependant on the level of achievement, e.g., 

  • if Y% of the “Rocks” are green and none are red, the budget is $X;
  • if all the “Rocks” are green, then the budget is $1.2X; and 
  • if all the “Rocks” are green, but Z% are super-green, then the budget is $1.5X

Have the team, not the leadership, plan the celebrations for the different budgets and share them with the organization. Regardless of what it is, ensure that it’s something that will get everyone excited and motivated to work together to achieve it. If the numbers are reported weekly, everyone knows how they are progressing towards that exciting goal, and if they are missing some, they can adjust to try and achieve them by quarter’s end.

So go and set targets that will lead you to your 3HAG and not trip you up on the way. Celebrate each accomplishment. You will be glad you did.

Copyright (c) 2021 Marc A. Borrelli

Recent Posts

EOS is just that, an Operating System

EOS is just that, an Operating System

The EOS Model® provides a useful foundation for businesses, but it falls short in addressing key aspects of creating an growth. By incorporating additional elements from the Gravitas 7 Attributes of Agile Growth® model, businesses can create a more comprehensive system that promotes growth while maintaining smooth operations. Focusing on Leadership, Strategy, Execution, Customer, Profit, Systems, and Talent, the 7 Attributes of Agile Growth® offer a more encompassing approach to achieving success.

What has COVID done to Company Culture?

What has COVID done to Company Culture?

COVID has affected everyone. However, companies need to examine if they have lived their core values during COVID, how they are reinforcing them in a WFH environment, and especially with the onboarding of new hires.

Profit ≠ Cash Flow

Profit ≠ Cash Flow

Knowing how much cash you generate is essential for planning for growth. Too many companies don’t know and when they grow they find they are continually running out of cash. Understand your cash flow generation and how to improve it through improvements in your Cash Conversion Cycle and using the Power of One.

What Are Your Critical and Counter Critical Numbers?

What Are Your Critical and Counter Critical Numbers?

The key to achieving long term goals is to define short term goals that lead you there. Focusing those short term goals around a key metric is essential. However, ensure that the metric will not lead other areas astray by having an appropriate counter critical metric act as a counter balance.

Rethinking ‘Family’ Culture in Business: Fostering Performance and Success

Rethinking ‘Family’ Culture in Business: Fostering Performance and Success

Explore the importance of company culture and the potential pitfalls of adopting a “Family” culture in organizations. Learn how to foster a high-performance culture while maintaining key family values and discover success factors for family businesses. Rethink the “Family” culture concept and create a thriving environment for your organization.

Do You Truly Know Your Core Customer?

Do You Truly Know Your Core Customer?

Knowing the profit of your core customers is key to building a growth model. Many companies have identified core customers that are generating a sub-optimal profit and so they cannot realize the profits they seek. Identifying the correct core customer allows you to generate profits and often operate in “Blue Ocean.”

The Spectacular Rise and Fall of the European Super League

The Spectacular Rise and Fall of the European Super League

The European Super League (ESL) collapsed within 48 hours of its announcement due to hubris, a lack of value creation, and fan backlash. The founders’ arrogance led them to disregard European football’s deep-rooted traditions and culture. At the same time, the focus on wealthy club owners instead of merit undermined the essence of the competition. The fierce backlash from fans, who felt betrayed by their clubs, demonstrated the importance of prioritizing supporters’ interests in football.

Does Your Financial Model Drive Growth?

Does Your Financial Model Drive Growth?

Working with many companies looking to grow, I am always surprised how many have not built a financial model that drives growth. I have mentioned before a financial model that drives growth? Here I am basing on Jim Collin's Profit/X, which he laid out in Good to...

COVID = Caught Inside

COVID = Caught Inside

As we emerge from COVID, the current employment environment makes me think of a surfing concept: “Being Caught Inside When a Big Set Comes Through.” Basically, the phrase refers to when you paddle like crazy to escape the crash of one wave, only to find that the next wave in the set is even bigger—and you’re exhausted. 2020 was the first wave, leaving us tired and low. But looking forward, there are major challenges looming on the horizon as business picks up in 2021. You are already asking a lot of your employees, who are working flat out and dealing with stress until you are able to hire more. But everyone is looking for employees right now, and hiring and retention for your organization is growing more difficult.

Do You Truly Know Your Core Customer?

Do You Truly Know Your Core Customer?

Who is your Core Customer?

In working with many clients on improving their business and developing a growth model, we soon get into the issue of their “Core Customer.” I have realized that many have not given this much thought and cannot easily define their “Core Customer.” Your Core Customer is the customer you are targeting, the customer that is preferred, and the one that your marketing and sales efforts are focused on. A Core Customer has the following attributes:

  • A real person with wants, needs, and fears.
  • Will buy for optimal profit.
  • Has an unique online identity and behavior.
  • Pays on time, loyal, and refers others.
  • Exists today among your customers

Not knowing your Core Customer is not a terrible problem, as we can quickly work through a session to put a definition in place. However, a more complicated issue is knowing their Core Customer but unable to define their “Economic Engine,” or profitability per customer. Lack of good data is always a severe problem! If you can’t measure something, then your performance is purely an assumption, and down that road is chaos.

Profit per Customer

If you don’t know your profit per customer, the customer you consider your “Core Customer” may generate sub-par profits pulling down the company’s performance. During a recent conversation, a CEO told me their metric was revenue per employee. While that would generate top-line revenue, it does nothing for profit, efficient customer targeting and marketing, or market differentiation. The business adage, “We are losing money on each item, but will make it up on volume,” seems to be the driving force.

Many companies I have worked with cannot tell me the profitability per customer and so work on the assumption that they are performing well, but cannot understand why they cannot scale and have profit and cashflow issues. Also, often their data is corrupted by the “Flaw of Averages.” So to paraphrase the proverb, “First get your data.” Sometimes getting good data on project costs is difficult, but without there cannot be:

  • Knowledge of performance;
  • Plans for improvement;
  • Measurement of improvement.

And “Hope is not a strategy.”

Select the Right Core Customer

Once we have data showing your Core Customer’s profitability, we can determine if they generate optimal profit. Since a requirement of a Core Customer, as mentioned above, if your Core Customer is not generating optimal profit, then there are one of two choices:

  1. Change your economic model so that they do, or
  2. Change your Core Customer.

When examining the data, many companies have found that the companies they were targeting as their “Core Customers” were their less profitable customers and ones that everyone in the market was fighting over. Targeting a different segment of customers that generated optimal profit could increase its profitability and differentiate itself from its competition, a great “Blue Ocean” strategy.

Lake Truck Lines, a Gravitas client, was focused on large customers. However, when analyzing its data, Lake Truck Lines realized that everyone was targeting those customers so there was pricing pressure and low margins. By make mid-sized customers its Core Customer, the company was able to operate with less competition and generate the optimal profit per customer. Similarly with Build Direct, focusing on young women seeking to do DIY, it was able to realize a much higher margin and operate in “Blue Ocean” waters compared to when it was focused on supplying general contractors.

The time spent analyzing your clients, their profitability, and your Blue Ocean possibilities can result in you operating at higher margins with less competition.

Profit / X

I have discussed the “Economic Engine” before, but it is the concept of “Profit/X,” Profit/X is the crucial part of your strategy, and it must:

  • Tightly aligns with your BHAG®
  • Be the fundamental economic engine of your business
  • Be a single overarching KPI to scale your business
  • It must impact revenue while controlling cost.
  • More X must be desirable.
  • It must be unique within the industry – you have to differentiate yourself from your competition.

What is critical is finding a Profit/X that is unique within your industry. If you choose the same Profit/X as everyone else, you are all competing on the same drivers, and you cannot differentiate yourself from your competition. Having identified our Core Customer, the appropriate Profit/X can be identified. Picking the wrong Profit/X given your Core Customer again will lead to sub-optimal results. These two concepts are interconnected and for you to achieve the best results, you need to determine both and have them connected.

Having the Right Profit/X

If your Profit/X is defined as profit per employee, you have only three ways to achieve this: increase the price, improve employee performance or cut the product’s quality. Since price should be driven by value creation, not employee profitability, raising prices may be difficult. We do not want to cut value delivery, and driving employees harder is no recipe for success. Thus a better metric may be profit per customer.

With customer size, if you are servicing large customers it may require longer larger projects compared to mid-sized companies. If mid-sized companies have more set up and administrative costs then your Profit/X must be different between the two.

There are many examples of Profit/X from Southwest Airlines’ profit per plane to a dry cleaner who measured it by profit per delivery truck. The key is to find the one that drives your business and will also differentiate yourself.

Conclusion

Many CEOs and Business Owners are salespeople and are not interested in digging into the financials and getting to the data I have discussed above. However, the effort is well worth it, as once you have a clear understanding of where you are, you can:

  • Target marketing towards your Core Customer;
  • Differentiate yourself from your competition;
  • Ensure that all projects, services, or products meeting your Profit/X to ensure profitability; and 
  • Position yourself for growth and profitability. 

Get your CFO, your team, and a coach and spend a day or two to determine the ideal results. The payoff will be huge.

 

Copyright (c) 2021 Marc A. Borrelli

The Spectacular Rise and Fall of the European Super League

The Spectacular Rise and Fall of the European Super League

A Dramatic Introduction and Swift Collapse

Last week, the world of football experienced the dramatic birth and collapse of the European Super League (ESL). Living in Atlanta, the defeat reminded me of the Falcon’s 2017 Superbowl and Greg Norman’s 1986 Masters. On Sunday evening, the formation of the ESL was announced, consisting of 12 “founding clubs” from England, Spain, and Italy. Three other unnamed clubs were soon to join, along with another five teams that would qualify annually for the 20-team competition. However, within 48 hours, the ESL was dead.

Financial Motivations and American Influences

The ESL was introduced with a promise to “deliver excitement and drama never seen before in football,” and it surely delivered, albeit not in the way they had intended. The main motivation behind the formation of the ESL was money. The fifteen founding clubs were guaranteed a place every year, bypassing the need for qualification and relegation and enabling them to secure a larger share of revenues with less risk. Broadcasting rights were expected to generate €4bn annually, nearly double the €2.4bn brought in by the Champions League in the 2018-19 season.

The American sports industry is known for its effective money-producing cartels. Professional sports leagues in the United States act as monopoly-like structures that distribute wealth evenly among a self-selected group. These leagues ensure that teams remain in the league regardless of their performance, challenging the American ideal of meritocracy. The European model, on the other hand, is more capitalistic, with club owners taking risks and investing in the potential for rewards. The ESL sought to impose an American-style cartel on European football to reduce risk and transfer more money to the club owners, similar to the recent restructuring of Formula 1 under Liberty Media’s ownership. As Martin Baumann put it, “We can sell just about anything to the Europeans. Why not our hyper-capitalistic cartel-based pro sports system?”

Hubris, Value Creation, and Fan Backlash

Hubris

The collapse of the ESL can be attributed to hubris. The founders neglected the sport’s business model and Ben Horowitz’s sage advice, “Take care of the People, the Products, and the Profits— IN THAT ORDER.” Their arrogance led them to believe that they could easily impose the American sports system on European clubs without considering the cultural differences and deep-rooted traditions. This hubris resulted in the creation of a league that generated widespread contempt, proving that the incompetence of a few powerful individuals should never be underestimated.

Value Creation

The league’s criteria were not based on being the best in Europe but rather on the wealth of the owners, leading to a lack of value creation. The ESL claimed to be an exhibition of elite football, but without the need for qualification, teams would not have had to try very hard, reducing the value of the competition. Furthermore, the selection of clubs based on their owners’ wealth undermined the very essence of what it means to be the best in Europe. For example, Arsenal, a once-powerful club, is currently struggling in the Premier League and would not have been considered one of Europe’s top teams based on their on-field performance. The ESL destroyed any pretense of value creation by focusing on wealth instead of merit.

Fan Backlash

The European model places emphasis on the fans, the players, and the managers, with club success being the primary focus. The ESL completely disregarded this fundamental aspect of European football, leading to fierce backlash from fans who felt betrayed by their clubs. Protests erupted at stadiums and training grounds, with fans burning effigies of club owners and demanding change. Fans were also united in their disdain for the ESL, with a YouGov poll finding that 79% of British football fans opposed the league, and 68% of them “strongly.” This overwhelming response from fans made it clear that any league that does not prioritize the interests of its supporters is destined for failure.

Its founding members’ swift abandonment of the ESL left the American owners no choice but to follow suit.

The Aftermath and Potential Regulation

The outcome of the ESL debacle led to apologies from club owners and even JP Morgan, who underwrote the league’s formation. However, the real threat now lies in regulation. The British government has launched a review into how football is run, and there is pressure for British clubs to adopt the German community-ownership model, where fans own 51 percent of the club.

As the dust settles, it is clear that football is anything but boring.

Copyright (c) 2021 Marc A. Borrelli

Recent Posts

EOS is just that, an Operating System

EOS is just that, an Operating System

The EOS Model® provides a useful foundation for businesses, but it falls short in addressing key aspects of creating an growth. By incorporating additional elements from the Gravitas 7 Attributes of Agile Growth® model, businesses can create a more comprehensive system that promotes growth while maintaining smooth operations. Focusing on Leadership, Strategy, Execution, Customer, Profit, Systems, and Talent, the 7 Attributes of Agile Growth® offer a more encompassing approach to achieving success.

What has COVID done to Company Culture?

What has COVID done to Company Culture?

COVID has affected everyone. However, companies need to examine if they have lived their core values during COVID, how they are reinforcing them in a WFH environment, and especially with the onboarding of new hires.

Profit ≠ Cash Flow

Profit ≠ Cash Flow

Knowing how much cash you generate is essential for planning for growth. Too many companies don’t know and when they grow they find they are continually running out of cash. Understand your cash flow generation and how to improve it through improvements in your Cash Conversion Cycle and using the Power of One.

What Are Your Critical and Counter Critical Numbers?

What Are Your Critical and Counter Critical Numbers?

The key to achieving long term goals is to define short term goals that lead you there. Focusing those short term goals around a key metric is essential. However, ensure that the metric will not lead other areas astray by having an appropriate counter critical metric act as a counter balance.

Rethinking ‘Family’ Culture in Business: Fostering Performance and Success

Rethinking ‘Family’ Culture in Business: Fostering Performance and Success

Explore the importance of company culture and the potential pitfalls of adopting a “Family” culture in organizations. Learn how to foster a high-performance culture while maintaining key family values and discover success factors for family businesses. Rethink the “Family” culture concept and create a thriving environment for your organization.

Do You Truly Know Your Core Customer?

Do You Truly Know Your Core Customer?

Knowing the profit of your core customers is key to building a growth model. Many companies have identified core customers that are generating a sub-optimal profit and so they cannot realize the profits they seek. Identifying the correct core customer allows you to generate profits and often operate in “Blue Ocean.”

The Spectacular Rise and Fall of the European Super League

The Spectacular Rise and Fall of the European Super League

The European Super League (ESL) collapsed within 48 hours of its announcement due to hubris, a lack of value creation, and fan backlash. The founders’ arrogance led them to disregard European football’s deep-rooted traditions and culture. At the same time, the focus on wealthy club owners instead of merit undermined the essence of the competition. The fierce backlash from fans, who felt betrayed by their clubs, demonstrated the importance of prioritizing supporters’ interests in football.

Does Your Financial Model Drive Growth?

Does Your Financial Model Drive Growth?

Working with many companies looking to grow, I am always surprised how many have not built a financial model that drives growth. I have mentioned before a financial model that drives growth? Here I am basing on Jim Collin's Profit/X, which he laid out in Good to...

COVID = Caught Inside

COVID = Caught Inside

As we emerge from COVID, the current employment environment makes me think of a surfing concept: “Being Caught Inside When a Big Set Comes Through.” Basically, the phrase refers to when you paddle like crazy to escape the crash of one wave, only to find that the next wave in the set is even bigger—and you’re exhausted. 2020 was the first wave, leaving us tired and low. But looking forward, there are major challenges looming on the horizon as business picks up in 2021. You are already asking a lot of your employees, who are working flat out and dealing with stress until you are able to hire more. But everyone is looking for employees right now, and hiring and retention for your organization is growing more difficult.

Does Your Financial Model Drive Growth?

Does Your Financial Model Drive Growth?

Working with many companies looking to grow, I am always surprised how many have not built a financial model that drives growth. I have mentioned before a financial model that drives growth? Here I am basing on Jim Collin’s Profit/X, which he laid out in Good to Great. So then we have to delve into what is Profit/X. This is the key financial metric that drives profitable growth by defining some profit number per some “X” that results in:

Passion. Your employees are passionate about the “X” and excited about increasing it.
Empowerment. Your employees are empowered to make decisions to ensure the baseline Profi/X is met.
Drive. It drives behavior to generate profit and growth.
Discipline. It provides the financial discipline to ensure that the organization remains profitable as it grows.

Thus is it is your Economic Engine that will enable profitable growth.

Many people look for a quick answer in determining Profit/X, but there is no quick answer. It is an iterative process that will get there, but no something you necessarily come up with on the first try.

Profit can be:

  • Gross Profit,
  • Operating Profit,
  • Net Profit,
  • Gross Margin,
  • Operating Margin, or
  • Net Margin,

to name a few.

“X” is very variable and can be:

  • “Product/Service,”
  • Customer,
  • Invoice,
  • lb,
  • pallet,
  • truckload, or
  • plane.

For a better understanding of Profit/X, my video below may help explain it better.

Profit/X

It is well worth your time to develop your Profit/X and get your employees to understand it and embrace it. The discipline it provides combined with the drive and empowerment it delivers makes a very strong economic engine and ensures continued profitability through your growth.

 

Copyright (c) 2021 Marc A. Borrelli

 

Recent Posts

EOS is just that, an Operating System

EOS is just that, an Operating System

The EOS Model® provides a useful foundation for businesses, but it falls short in addressing key aspects of creating an growth. By incorporating additional elements from the Gravitas 7 Attributes of Agile Growth® model, businesses can create a more comprehensive system that promotes growth while maintaining smooth operations. Focusing on Leadership, Strategy, Execution, Customer, Profit, Systems, and Talent, the 7 Attributes of Agile Growth® offer a more encompassing approach to achieving success.

What has COVID done to Company Culture?

What has COVID done to Company Culture?

COVID has affected everyone. However, companies need to examine if they have lived their core values during COVID, how they are reinforcing them in a WFH environment, and especially with the onboarding of new hires.

Profit ≠ Cash Flow

Profit ≠ Cash Flow

Knowing how much cash you generate is essential for planning for growth. Too many companies don’t know and when they grow they find they are continually running out of cash. Understand your cash flow generation and how to improve it through improvements in your Cash Conversion Cycle and using the Power of One.

What Are Your Critical and Counter Critical Numbers?

What Are Your Critical and Counter Critical Numbers?

The key to achieving long term goals is to define short term goals that lead you there. Focusing those short term goals around a key metric is essential. However, ensure that the metric will not lead other areas astray by having an appropriate counter critical metric act as a counter balance.

Rethinking ‘Family’ Culture in Business: Fostering Performance and Success

Rethinking ‘Family’ Culture in Business: Fostering Performance and Success

Explore the importance of company culture and the potential pitfalls of adopting a “Family” culture in organizations. Learn how to foster a high-performance culture while maintaining key family values and discover success factors for family businesses. Rethink the “Family” culture concept and create a thriving environment for your organization.

Do You Truly Know Your Core Customer?

Do You Truly Know Your Core Customer?

Knowing the profit of your core customers is key to building a growth model. Many companies have identified core customers that are generating a sub-optimal profit and so they cannot realize the profits they seek. Identifying the correct core customer allows you to generate profits and often operate in “Blue Ocean.”

The Spectacular Rise and Fall of the European Super League

The Spectacular Rise and Fall of the European Super League

The European Super League (ESL) collapsed within 48 hours of its announcement due to hubris, a lack of value creation, and fan backlash. The founders’ arrogance led them to disregard European football’s deep-rooted traditions and culture. At the same time, the focus on wealthy club owners instead of merit undermined the essence of the competition. The fierce backlash from fans, who felt betrayed by their clubs, demonstrated the importance of prioritizing supporters’ interests in football.

Does Your Financial Model Drive Growth?

Does Your Financial Model Drive Growth?

Working with many companies looking to grow, I am always surprised how many have not built a financial model that drives growth. I have mentioned before a financial model that drives growth? Here I am basing on Jim Collin's Profit/X, which he laid out in Good to...

COVID = Caught Inside

COVID = Caught Inside

As we emerge from COVID, the current employment environment makes me think of a surfing concept: “Being Caught Inside When a Big Set Comes Through.” Basically, the phrase refers to when you paddle like crazy to escape the crash of one wave, only to find that the next wave in the set is even bigger—and you’re exhausted. 2020 was the first wave, leaving us tired and low. But looking forward, there are major challenges looming on the horizon as business picks up in 2021. You are already asking a lot of your employees, who are working flat out and dealing with stress until you are able to hire more. But everyone is looking for employees right now, and hiring and retention for your organization is growing more difficult.

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

Sunk Costs Are Just That, Sunk!

Working with my Vistage group this week, we had an exciting discussion about “If you were starting your business today, what would you do differently?” This discussion made me think of sunk costs and how they limit us. I have discussed how to make better decisions before, but sunk costs deal with our assumptions.

What are sunk costs? A sunk cost is a payment or investment that has already been made, and it is sunk because it is unrecoverable no matter what. So, it should not be a factor in any decisions from now on.

The Sunk Cost Fallacy

The sunk cost fallacy is when an action is continued because of past decisions (time, money, resources) rather than a rational choice of what will maximize the returns at this present time. The fallacy is that behavior is driven by an expenditure that is not recoupable regardless of future actions.

For example, a company that decides to build a new software platform. They have done their analyses and determined that the future benefit they will receive from the software will outweigh its development cost. They pay for the software and expect to save a specific cash flow level from the software’s production each year. But after a few years, the platform is underperforming, and cash flows are less than expected.

A decision has to be made: should the platform be abandoned or not? At this point, the software’s initial cost is a sunk cost and cannot be recovered. The decision should only be based on the future cash flows—or the future expected benefit—of the platform compared to the value of replacing it today, not the original cost of the software.

However, businesses, organizations, and people often have difficulty abandoning strategies because of the time spent developing them, even if they aren’t the right choice for the company or individual. Therefore, recognizing what a sunk cost is will result in better decisions. 

How sunk costs sabotage us

Here are a few ways, but this list is not exhaustive.

At Work

Bad Pricing

Companies often justify pricing based on their costs. Most commonly, the R&D expenditure to develop the product. Whatever the R&D costs were, they are irrelevant to the pricing. The market will only pay what the product is worth, not what was invested in it. A pharmaceutical company’s attempt to justify high prices because of the need to recoup R&D expenses is fallacious. The company will charge market prices whether R&D had cost one dollar or one million dollars.

Similarly, many businesses price their services on the hours it took to deliver a service. However, the costs of providing the service are sunk, and you cannot recoup them. The market will only pay you what they deem the value of the product or service to be, so using pricing to recoup costs is “backward.” Instead, one should determine the price and then figure out how to deliver the product or service at the profit margin desired.

Consider if a company invested $100,000 to produce a product and planned to sell them at $100 each. However, the day after the product launch, a competitor announces a better competing product at $50. Will anyone pay $100 for an inferior product when the best one is available for $50?

Bad Investments

Sunk costs are why so many investors tend to remain committed or even invest additional capital into a bad investment to make their initial decision seem worthwhile. How many times has an investor tell you, “As soon as X gets back to what I paid, I am selling.” Why?

What they paid is paid. The investor cannot change that; it is a sunk cost. The real question is, “Does X offer higher returns in the future than Y, some other asset I am considering, after transaction costs?” If yes, then stick with it. If no, switch out X for Y. 

Assume you spend $4,000 on a wine tour of Napa. Later on, you find a better wine tour to Bordeau that costs $2,500, and you purchase that trip as well. Later, you realize that the two dates clash and the tickets are non-refundable. Would you attend the $4,000 good wine trip or the $2,500 great wine trip? The $2,500 trip. The $4,000 trip is irrelevant in consideration because it is inferior, and the money is gone.

Bad processes

Returning to my initial question, “If you were starting your business again today, what would you do differently?” Many people will give outstanding examples of what they would do differently but never consider making the change because of the investment they have in their current process. As with assets, if your current process generates a cash flow of $X per year, and switching would generate some cash flow greater than $X after the costs of switching, you should switch.

Misaligned employees

Many companies have employees whom they know are subpar. However, they cannot fire them because they have been employed for a long time or the company has invested some amount in them. This situation is most often seen with those employees who have been with the organization since the beginning. However, the organization has outgrown them. 

Again, the time invested by the company and the employee are sunk costs. The decision is what is the best investment going forward. If a more significant return is achievable with a new employee, then the change is required.

Sunk Costs Exist in Our Personal Lives Too

Feel free not to ski in bad weather.

You may be considered a fair-weather skier, but the cost became sunk when you purchased your ticket. You might feel obligated to stay and stick it out if the ticket was expensive or you have a limited holiday window, but if not skiing in a freezing whiteout makes you happier, do it! Either way, you aren’t getting your money back.

Don’t go to the gym just because you have an annual membership.

While working out may be advantageous to your health, your annual membership shouldn’t dictate whether you go to the gym on any given day. If you have paid up front, then the money is gone. So if you would prefer to take a hike, ride a bike, relax and meditate, you should. However, I am not saying there may be more benefits to working out.

Don’t grow up to be a lawyer.

I chose lawyers because I was this example; however, I decided before I graduated law school that I didn’t want to be a lawyer. Assume you went to law school, passed the bar, started working, and then realized you hate being a lawyer. What should you do? You invested so much time, energy, and money in that degree, so it can’t be worth starting over again with a new career? Unfortunately, time, energy, and money are all sunk costs, so if your end goal is your happiness, you might need to cut your losses and refocus your energies elsewhere. 

With the above examples, next time you face a decision, ignore all the sunk costs; you will make better decisions for your organization and yourself.

Copyright (c) 2021, Marc A. Borrelli

Recent Posts

EOS is just that, an Operating System

EOS is just that, an Operating System

The EOS Model® provides a useful foundation for businesses, but it falls short in addressing key aspects of creating an growth. By incorporating additional elements from the Gravitas 7 Attributes of Agile Growth® model, businesses can create a more comprehensive system that promotes growth while maintaining smooth operations. Focusing on Leadership, Strategy, Execution, Customer, Profit, Systems, and Talent, the 7 Attributes of Agile Growth® offer a more encompassing approach to achieving success.

What has COVID done to Company Culture?

What has COVID done to Company Culture?

COVID has affected everyone. However, companies need to examine if they have lived their core values during COVID, how they are reinforcing them in a WFH environment, and especially with the onboarding of new hires.

Profit ≠ Cash Flow

Profit ≠ Cash Flow

Knowing how much cash you generate is essential for planning for growth. Too many companies don’t know and when they grow they find they are continually running out of cash. Understand your cash flow generation and how to improve it through improvements in your Cash Conversion Cycle and using the Power of One.

What Are Your Critical and Counter Critical Numbers?

What Are Your Critical and Counter Critical Numbers?

The key to achieving long term goals is to define short term goals that lead you there. Focusing those short term goals around a key metric is essential. However, ensure that the metric will not lead other areas astray by having an appropriate counter critical metric act as a counter balance.

Rethinking ‘Family’ Culture in Business: Fostering Performance and Success

Rethinking ‘Family’ Culture in Business: Fostering Performance and Success

Explore the importance of company culture and the potential pitfalls of adopting a “Family” culture in organizations. Learn how to foster a high-performance culture while maintaining key family values and discover success factors for family businesses. Rethink the “Family” culture concept and create a thriving environment for your organization.

Do You Truly Know Your Core Customer?

Do You Truly Know Your Core Customer?

Knowing the profit of your core customers is key to building a growth model. Many companies have identified core customers that are generating a sub-optimal profit and so they cannot realize the profits they seek. Identifying the correct core customer allows you to generate profits and often operate in “Blue Ocean.”

The Spectacular Rise and Fall of the European Super League

The Spectacular Rise and Fall of the European Super League

The European Super League (ESL) collapsed within 48 hours of its announcement due to hubris, a lack of value creation, and fan backlash. The founders’ arrogance led them to disregard European football’s deep-rooted traditions and culture. At the same time, the focus on wealthy club owners instead of merit undermined the essence of the competition. The fierce backlash from fans, who felt betrayed by their clubs, demonstrated the importance of prioritizing supporters’ interests in football.

Does Your Financial Model Drive Growth?

Does Your Financial Model Drive Growth?

Working with many companies looking to grow, I am always surprised how many have not built a financial model that drives growth. I have mentioned before a financial model that drives growth? Here I am basing on Jim Collin's Profit/X, which he laid out in Good to...

COVID = Caught Inside

COVID = Caught Inside

As we emerge from COVID, the current employment environment makes me think of a surfing concept: “Being Caught Inside When a Big Set Comes Through.” Basically, the phrase refers to when you paddle like crazy to escape the crash of one wave, only to find that the next wave in the set is even bigger—and you’re exhausted. 2020 was the first wave, leaving us tired and low. But looking forward, there are major challenges looming on the horizon as business picks up in 2021. You are already asking a lot of your employees, who are working flat out and dealing with stress until you are able to hire more. But everyone is looking for employees right now, and hiring and retention for your organization is growing more difficult.

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Do You REALLY Know Your Business Model?

Clarity is a repeated theme of mine and The Disruption!, whether in regards strategy or how you make money. Listening to Josh Kaufman discuss his “Five Parts of Every Business” and the need to define your business model while presenting this information clearly magnified the point.

 

What Are The “5 Parts of Every Business”?

Kaufman says in every business model there are “5 Parts of Every Business,” each of which flows into the next:

  1. Value Creation: A venture that doesn’t create value for others is a hobby.
  2. Marketing: A venture that doesn’t attract attention is a flop.
  3. Sales: A venture that doesn’t sell the value it creates is a non-profit.
  4. Value Delivery: A venture that doesn’t deliver what it promises is a scam.
  5. Finance: A venture that doesn’t bring in enough money to keep operating will inevitably close.

 

Value Creation

Kaufman defines Value Creation as “Discovering what people need or want, then creating it.”

Most customers don’t know what they need or want. As has been pointed out many times, people wanted a faster horse, not an automobile. However, whatever they want, in reality, they are just seeking a solution to a problem. Therefore, the critical issue is determining “What problem you are trying to solve?” Or, as Clayton Christensen said, “What is the job the customer is hiring you or your product to do?”

Defining this is often hard, as many companies don’t know what job their clients are seeking them or their products to provide. I have discussed this before. However, as the adage says, “people aren’t buying drills, they are buying holes.” This is a vital part of your business model.

So, working with your team to determine “the job to be done” and your “Core Customer” is well worth the effort because you can better describe what you do, and all your employees will better know what you do and how what they do impacts it.

 

Marketing

Kaufman’s definition is “Marketing is defined as attracting attention and building demand for what you have created.”

In today’s digital world, with Google, Facebook, Linked In, and Instagram, marketing separating yourself from the masses is hard, especially if people don’t understand the product and service. Therefore, by focusing on the job to be done or the problem you are solving, it easier to stand out among the crowd.

Also, as you identify what the “job to be done” is, you can better identify your Core Customer. Remember a Core Customer is:

  • An actual person with needs and wants. If you sell B2B your core customer is still a person because you have to convince a person to buy.
  • Who buys for the optimal profit.
  • Who pays on time, is loyal, and refers others.
  • Has a unique online identity and behavior; and
  • A customer who exists amongst your clients today.

Build Direct started as a company supplying contractors. However, it soon realized that while contractors were a key customer component, they were not the company’s Core Customer; instead, Build Direct’s core customers were young female DIYers interested in the products and education. Build Direct focused its marketing according to that recognition and started providing much educational content for young female DIYers. This specific marketing drove much better brand recognition and engagement.

Also, South Shore Furniture in Canada identified their core customer as “Sarah.” Sarah is so vital that there is a mannequin of Sarah in all meeting rooms, so no one forgets whom they are seeking to serve.

Besides, marketing to the correct demographic is easier and more fruitful if you know your Core Customer. Without this information, the marketing section of your business model is just hope, not a strategy!

 

Sales

Kaufman defines sales as “Turning prospective customers into paying customers.”

However, as Jeffrey Gitomer, put it “People don’t like to be sold, but they love to buy.” So the key is how do you move prospects into customers? Businesses have to earn their prospects’ trust and help them understand why it is worth paying for the offer. Another way of looking at this is, “What is your brand promise?”

Companies need to know what their brand promise is. For example, Starbucks is “Love your beverage or let us know and we will always make it right.” Some organizations may have supporting brand promises to prove more definition of the brand promise. Your brand promise must be measurable, because as Peter Drucker said, “What gets measured gets managed.” So if it is measurable and measured, the organization can ensure that it meets its brand promise, which provides more assurance to the prospect. Finally, with a clearly defined brand promise that is measurable, the organization ends up saying “No” more than “Yes” to opportunities and ideas since they will damage the brand promise.

Since no one wants to be taken advantage of, Sales is about educating the prospect to identify what is essential to convince them you can deliver on your promise. A clearly stated brand promise that is measured and quantified increases the ability to persuade the prospect to purchase from you. It amazes me how many business models don’t have a brand promise.

 

Value Delivery

Here Kaufman defines Value Delivery as “Giving your customers what you’ve promised and ensured that they’re satisfied.” With this, I have no issues. Anyone who doesn’t deliver what they promised is effectively a “scam artist.”

To ensure you that make the customer satisfied, you have to exceed the customers’ expectations. A popular way to determine customer satisfaction is through Net Promoter Score scores which we see more and more (if you are looking for help with NPS surveys of your customers, contact me). You want more promoters and detractors. However, the NPS score tells you what the customer thinks after experiencing the service or product. Companies need to develop systems that ensure the service or product is exceeding expectations.

A great example is the Ritz Carlton’s policy whereby any Ritz-Carlton employees can spend up to $2,000 per incident, not per year, to rescue a guest experience. This policy ensures that the customer is getting a great experience because it empowers employees to fix problems and provides the customers’ concerns are solved quickly. As David Marquet says, “Move the decision making to where the information is.” That is what Ritz is doing, and it is empowering employees and making customers happy.

Companies that have outsourced many functions to cut costs, so any customer has difficulty reaching the people they need or have to spend five minutes going through a phone tree to contact some is already failing at this.

Ensure your business model tracks customer satisfaction and you have ways to ensure that customers are happy.

 

Finance

Kaufman defines finance as “Bringing in enough money to keep going and make your effort worthwhile.”

As I have pointed out, this is key, and many people don’t realize the situation because of flawed analysis and lousy modeling. However, the key for any organization must be a well-defined “Profit/X.”

Many organizations don’t have a well-defined Profit/X, but there is a lack of discipline that ensures good financial performance without it. Profit/X is some unit of scale, and profit can be gross profit, net profit, EBTIDA, or EBIT. Examples that I have seen are:

  • profit per airplane
  • profit per job
  • profit per customer
  • gross margin per delivery
  • profit per employee

There is no correct Profit/X, just the one that works with your business. One organization that did deliveries chose Gross Margin/Delivery, which focused on reducing the cost of delivery to maximize profit. Once Profit/X is selected, the entire organization must seek to meet or exceed it; thus, everyone needs to understand it and how they drive it. With that focus and discipline, the organization is more likely to meet its financial goals and objectives.

 

Summary

In summary, the organization needs to be able to define its business model by the following:

  • Define the problem its products or services solve or, more precisely, what job they do.
  • Who their Core Customer is so they can market to them effectively?
  • What is their brand promise, and how is it measured?
  • That their customers are satisfied, returning and recommending.
  • That they have identified their Profit/X so that they are profitable.

Doing this work is an excellent exercise for any leadership team to help bring clarity to your organization. If you need assistance doing it, contact me. Good luck, and may your business grow.

 

 

Copyright (c) 2021, Marc A. Borrelli

Recent Posts

EOS is just that, an Operating System

EOS is just that, an Operating System

The EOS Model® provides a useful foundation for businesses, but it falls short in addressing key aspects of creating an growth. By incorporating additional elements from the Gravitas 7 Attributes of Agile Growth® model, businesses can create a more comprehensive system that promotes growth while maintaining smooth operations. Focusing on Leadership, Strategy, Execution, Customer, Profit, Systems, and Talent, the 7 Attributes of Agile Growth® offer a more encompassing approach to achieving success.

What has COVID done to Company Culture?

What has COVID done to Company Culture?

COVID has affected everyone. However, companies need to examine if they have lived their core values during COVID, how they are reinforcing them in a WFH environment, and especially with the onboarding of new hires.

Profit ≠ Cash Flow

Profit ≠ Cash Flow

Knowing how much cash you generate is essential for planning for growth. Too many companies don’t know and when they grow they find they are continually running out of cash. Understand your cash flow generation and how to improve it through improvements in your Cash Conversion Cycle and using the Power of One.

What Are Your Critical and Counter Critical Numbers?

What Are Your Critical and Counter Critical Numbers?

The key to achieving long term goals is to define short term goals that lead you there. Focusing those short term goals around a key metric is essential. However, ensure that the metric will not lead other areas astray by having an appropriate counter critical metric act as a counter balance.

Rethinking ‘Family’ Culture in Business: Fostering Performance and Success

Rethinking ‘Family’ Culture in Business: Fostering Performance and Success

Explore the importance of company culture and the potential pitfalls of adopting a “Family” culture in organizations. Learn how to foster a high-performance culture while maintaining key family values and discover success factors for family businesses. Rethink the “Family” culture concept and create a thriving environment for your organization.

Do You Truly Know Your Core Customer?

Do You Truly Know Your Core Customer?

Knowing the profit of your core customers is key to building a growth model. Many companies have identified core customers that are generating a sub-optimal profit and so they cannot realize the profits they seek. Identifying the correct core customer allows you to generate profits and often operate in “Blue Ocean.”

The Spectacular Rise and Fall of the European Super League

The Spectacular Rise and Fall of the European Super League

The European Super League (ESL) collapsed within 48 hours of its announcement due to hubris, a lack of value creation, and fan backlash. The founders’ arrogance led them to disregard European football’s deep-rooted traditions and culture. At the same time, the focus on wealthy club owners instead of merit undermined the essence of the competition. The fierce backlash from fans, who felt betrayed by their clubs, demonstrated the importance of prioritizing supporters’ interests in football.

Does Your Financial Model Drive Growth?

Does Your Financial Model Drive Growth?

Working with many companies looking to grow, I am always surprised how many have not built a financial model that drives growth. I have mentioned before a financial model that drives growth? Here I am basing on Jim Collin's Profit/X, which he laid out in Good to...

COVID = Caught Inside

COVID = Caught Inside

As we emerge from COVID, the current employment environment makes me think of a surfing concept: “Being Caught Inside When a Big Set Comes Through.” Basically, the phrase refers to when you paddle like crazy to escape the crash of one wave, only to find that the next wave in the set is even bigger—and you’re exhausted. 2020 was the first wave, leaving us tired and low. But looking forward, there are major challenges looming on the horizon as business picks up in 2021. You are already asking a lot of your employees, who are working flat out and dealing with stress until you are able to hire more. But everyone is looking for employees right now, and hiring and retention for your organization is growing more difficult.