2021 Ahead! Are you ready?

2021 Ahead! Are you ready?

Thank god, but 2020 is nearly over. While it has been a crazy year, it has, in many ways, flown by. It seems only yesterday that we were all locked down and adjusting to a new world. However, the year is nearly over, and the world has not changed. However, we are experiencing a “K” shaped recovery. Effectively, the economy is bifurcating, and many industries and companies will end up on the downward slope.

As I have said before, I expect COVID to be with us until Q3/Q4 2021, but call me a pessimist. Even so, we should expect to be here till the end of Q2 2021. So how are you planning for 2021? What got you here won’t get you there!

This Year It Is the Accelerant Stupid

As you begin the planning cycle, consider that COVID is an accelerant. Whatever were the major trends were in your industry at the end of 2019, take them forward ten years, that is where the industry is now! So where are you and where should you be?
Concerning where you are and where you need to be when COVID is over, you need to take a realistic look at your organization and do a gap analysis on:

  • strengths and weaknesses,
  • culture and core values,
  • human and capital resources,
  • processes and systems,
  • customers and buying habits,
  • product and service delivery,
  • suppliers, and
  • competition.

With that gap analysis, you can determine where to focus your attention, so that you can emerge from COVID in a leadership position. I am not going to go through all these today, but here are few things to consider.

Culture

Culture has never been more critical. If employees adhere to the company’s core values and live its culture, then provided they know the organizational goals, they can make the right decisions. Moving decision making down to the front lines is critical during the next twelve months as the environment changes quickly. Having the decision process moving up and down the organization is a luxury few can afford.

For a great reminder, look at Turn the Ship Around by Capt. below.

Further, reading “Adaptation under Fire: How Militaries Change in Wartime,” by Lt. General David Barno and Nora Bensahel, there are several crucial lessons for management.

  • Everyone Knew the Mission, not just the task. Post World War I, decentralized, independent battlefield actions, a tradition in German military thinking, returned and became a central tenet of German army doctrine. Mission orders were regularly emphasized and practiced during peacetime training exercises.
  • Continuous Improvement. The German army established the culture of relentlessly critiquing its leaders and units’ performance in exercises and war games. Commanders and staff officers at all levels were expected to do so candidly and objectively, without regard to personal embarrassment or potential career damage. This candor extended to critiquing the performance of senior officers and higher headquarters as well. These principles made German doctrine inherently adaptable in the face of battle.
  • Changing the rules of the Game. The French army believed the next war would be the same as WWI. French interwar thinking focused primarily on leveraging defensive operations to prevail in any future conflict. Thus, they undertook no “no large-scale examination of the lessons of the last war by a significant portion of the Officers Corps.” In contrast, the Germans examined how to use new technologies to change the “Rules of the Game” and win using offensive operations. They improved their Blitzkrieg tactics that had great success in World War II.

I would bring these lessons into your organization as part of any new model to succeed. Regarding business Blitzkrieg offensives, I would look to John Boyd and his OODA Loop as a better model.

Process and Systems

As you examine your processes and systems, I would recommend asking, “If we didn’t do it this way, would we?” and “Will these systems get us to where we need to be?” In many cases, with the acceleration that has been experienced, the answer may be no. Thus, put together multifunctional teams together to examine these and use different problem-solving models, as I mentioned in “Want the Best Results, Get out of your Comfort Zone.” Some I would look to are:

  • Get out of your comfort zone. Change the environment or put limitations on the team. Use Brian Eno’s Oblique Strategies, where each card puts a constraint on the team to help too when teams are struggling to break through a problem. They are available on Amazon.
  • Break your business process down to its most simplified version, e.g., ship a product to a customer and then work on new solutions. The more you define the process in the question, the more you are tied to that system in the solution. By being most simple, you can expand the range of solutions.
  • New ideas, enforce the rule that you cannot challenge any idea until 100 are developed. This rule stops the thought process from being shut down early by those that oppose change, and often the craziest ideas come at the end, but a gem of something great.
  • Also, in examining systems, take a look at Tom Wujec’s TED Talk, “Got a Wicked Problem, First Tell Me How You Make Toast,” below.

Using these problem-solving methods, if done correctly, could provide an additional benefit, reinforcing your culture and camaraderie among your employees, which has been challenging to do during our COVID work from home.

Contact me if you need help facilitating any of these processes as you look ahead as I wish you all the best succeeding in 2022 and beyond.

Copyright (c) 2020, Marc A. Borrelli

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COVID continues to accelerate changes in business models

COVID continues to accelerate changes in business models

As I have said repeatedly, COVID is accelerating change for all businesses, whether or not they recognize it.  A recent survey by the IBM Institute of Business Value concluded that “executives must accept that pandemic-induced changes in strategy, management, operations, and budgetary priorities are here to stay.” I see three significant shifts taking place.

  1. How CEOs Lead
  2. Changes in priorities
  3. Changes in business models.

How CEOs Lead

  1. Unlocking bolder (“10x”) aspirations. COVID caused most CEOs to question their assumptions about the pace and magnitude change attainable. The realization that a change in mindset can dramatically affect goal setting and the operating model, many CEOs are effecting changes in a few months that companies previously assumed would take years. The speed for many of these changes is down to employees working longer and harder; however, many CEOs also recognize that many employees have more time available with the stop in travel.
  2. Elevating their “to be” list to the same level as “to do” in their operating models. With COVID, leadership has to change. CEOs’ priorities were setting up strategy, culture, and making people decisions at regular times. However, now it about maintaining morale and ensuring employees are prepared for whatever may come in the face of uncertainty. Thus, leaders are changing how they and their senior management team show up. Leaders now need to be empathetic and offer words of encouragement.  According to Lance Fritz, CEO of Union Pacific, “[Employees] need to see that their leadership is vulnerable, empathetic, and making decisions in accordance with our values, which I’d better be the living proof of.”
  3. Fully embracing stakeholder capitalism. While I have also previously discussed embracing stakeholder capitalism; however, COVID has accelerated this trend as it has emphatically affirmed the interconnection and interdependence of businesses with their full range of stakeholders. CEOs are confronting tough decisions with profound human consequences every day. CEOs have realized that their choices are affecting their employees, communities, and suppliers. How they behave will have a long term effect on their business, especially as 87 percent of customers say that they will purchase from companies that support what they care about.
  4. Harnessing the full power of their CEO peer networks. As a result of COVID, CEOs talk to one another much more and at a much greater rate. The belief is, “Let’s learn from each other. Let’s hold hands. Let’s commiserate.” They are achieving this through informal networks and groups like Vistage. The power of a Peer group where you can be vulnerable and get input into these hard decisions is immense. CEOs don’t have to feel like they are carrying all the weight themselves. During the Great Recession, Vistage member companies outperformed non-Vistage member companies [. ]

Changes in Priorities

Not only are CEOs changing the way they lead, but companies are finding that their priorities have changed dramatically! According to the recent IBM survey, companies will focus more inwardly over the next two years. Their top priorities now are:

87% Cost Management
87% Enterprise Agility
86% Cash Flow and Liquidity Management
84% Customer Experience Management
76% Cybersecurity
75% I.T. Resiliency
65% IoT, Cloud and Mobility
58% New Product Development
52% New Market Entry

 

As companies move away from just-in-time delivery, 40% of those surveyed identified the need for space capacity in their supply chains. However, about 60% said they were accelerating their organizations’ digital transformation, and three-quarters plan on building more robust I.T. capabilities.

Changes in Business Models

Finally, many companies have also changed their business models to address market changes resulting from COVID, including some clients. Some of the creative pivots are:

  • Mandarin Oriental. As mentioned last week, many high-end hotel chains are supplying alternative residences for the wealthy. MO has not only done that; it seeks to deliver the luxury experience where you are rather than at a destination. The company promotes “Staycations at M.O.” at its properties if there is one in your city. These staycations offer early check-in, late check-out, a free bottle of wine, and credits for other purchases. However, if you don’t want to leave you home, MO says, “Just call room service.” They will deliver food, items from the cake shop, supplies from the spa, or other merchandise to your house.
  • JD.com. For producers of alcoholic beverages, COVID was a considerable blow. During the Chinese shutdown, its e-commerce giant, JD.com, go D.J.s and performers to stage three hour live show online. During these shows, viewers could purchase alcoholic beverages from Rémy Martin to Budweiser and have it delivered to their doors with a single click. As a result, whiskey sales from “a single partner brand” increased eightfold during a day with the show. As a result, JD.com plans to continue its live music events but to expand the products it offers.
  • David Dodge. As auto sales plunged nationwide, according to the Washington Post reports David Dodge in Glen Mills, Pa., the auto dealership sold more cars in July than in any previous month in its 15-year existence. David Kelleher, David Dodge’s owner, pivoted to meet the changing market. The company created a business development center to consolidate online leads and located it prominently just inside the front door. Salespeople now work phones, email, texts, and Zoom. They are using FaceTime to accompany customers on test drives. For those customers who want to stay socially distant, David Dodge allows the whole process online, and they deliver the vehicle to the customer’s home. Kelleher and his top salesperson, Mike McVeigh, doesn’t expect to return to the old ways once COVID is behind them.
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill. For a company that had been struggling with several crises over the last few years, when COVID hit, Chipotle new it had to change its business model to survive. The model was for pickup orders to be its lifeline. The company added “digital kitchens,” which handle online orders for pickup, at those restaurants that didn’t already have them, to enable this pivot. In May, Chipotle announced it would add 8,000 new workers to meet the growing demand. In July, it needed to hire 10,000 more. The company has aggressively added “Chipotlanes,” drive-thru lanes exclusively for picking up digital orders. That business model requires more employees than traditional stores—hence all that hiring is much more profitable.

Cause for Concern

All these changes are requiring more from employees in terms of working longer and harder. As I have noted on numerous occasions, empathy is needed, and burnout is a huge issue. What is worrying is that IBM’s research, drawing from other surveys that included employees, found a disturbing wide gap between “employers significantly overestimating the effectiveness of their support and training efforts” and how employees feel about these measures.

Source: IBM Institute of Business Value

As CEOs and leaders, it is critical that as you face COVID and plan for changes in leadership style, changes in priorities, and pivots in your business model, you need to do more for your employees. They are scared, uncertain, working from with kids doing school virtually, potentially overwhelming debt (see below), and they need management to support them. Those leaders who don’t rise to this challenge will see the good employees leave and create a reputation stain that could last a generation.

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Are we losing (the best) half of our workers?

Are we losing (the best) half of our workers?

The job numbers released last week confirmed what we heard for some time. Women are leaving the workforce in record numbers. According to the jobs report, 865,000 women over 20 dropped out of the American workforce compared with 216,000 men in the same age group. Thus, four times the number of women are leaving the labor market compared to men. Women are bearing the brunt of parenting and running a household while also working a job during the pandemic. The consensus is that even though men are doing more than they’ve perhaps done in any other generation, it’s still not half. The Labor Department finds that married mothers do almost double the household chores and parenting as married fathers.

This environment has created a pressure cooker environment in many households, and it has come to a head with the start of the new school year. As many children stay home instead of returning to school, many women are making the difficult decision to drop out of the workforce altogether. The child care crisis is wreaking havoc on women’s employment.

The new school year has brought it to a head with many children staying home instead of returning to their classrooms in person. And it is forcing many women to make a difficult choice and drop out of the workforce altogether. At the end of 2019, women held just over half of all payroll jobs for only the second time in history. Women now account for 49.7% of the workforce.

This departure from the workforce isn’t just an issue for women, it’s an issue for families, the government, and the economy because women employment it drives GDP.

For women. The longer women are out of the workforce, the harder it is to get back in. Every month and year that a woman is out of the labor force leads to a decline in skills, behind on the latest technology, and increasing the wage gap between others who have been in the workforce.

For the economy. Women are critical contributors to household income. According to many, family finances are going to deteriorate in the immediate term.

For the government. If women leave the labor force, there is a risk that the country will take a step back in gender dynamics, both in the workplace and at home. It will reduce the number of women seeking to enter the workforce in the future, and many will leave due to harmful gender dynamics.

The country’s issue is that today more women (72.5%) are graduating from college than men (68.5%). The effect of this is rippling through the economy; more women (50.5%) are graduating from medical school than men (49.4%), and more women (52.4%) are graduating from ABA-approved law schools than men (47.51%). As a result, we are sacrificing our best and brightest.

Not only that, studies show that once women land leadership positions, they excel, often surpassing men, because they have developed soft skills necessary for effective leadership. Females CFO seems to correlate with high income, female CIOs lead to better investment decisions. Traits like empathy, communication, and listening are qualities that serve women well when in management positions.

Getting women back to work requires long-term thinking about the types of jobs where women want to work. However, according to the Harvard Business Review, misogyny is rampant in the restaurant industry, and we have all seen the stories of its extent in the news and technology industries. Providing opportunities for women in STEM fields will help close the gap and provide more stable employment opportunities in the future. However, individual attitudes will have change.

What does this mean for you? I think the challenge for HR and CEOs going forward is to find a way to provide women a way to keep working and reduce the stress they face at home or offer them a path back in the organization and reclaim their position on the corporate ladder. Those companies that can do this effectively will attract great resources and enable them to get ahead.

Looking at the situation reminds me of Bill Gates’ speech in Saudi Arabia. The audience was segregated by gender, with a large panel dividing the fully veiled women from the men. A participant asked whether the country could realistically become “one of the most competitive economies by 2010.” Gates replied, “Well if you’re not fully utilizing half the talent in the country, you’re not going to get too close to the top.” If the U.S. wants to keep to the top, we have to find a better way to utilize the excellent talent pool we have and not throw a lot of it away.

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Resolutions, Here We Go Again.

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Understanding and Optimizing Your Cash Conversion Cycle

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Are We At the Top?

Are We At the Top?

The stock market has corrected some, but things are still frothy in the financial world. Unfortunately, when things are frothy, the economic forces of gravity come into play at some point, and the pain ensures. Why do I think things are at the top?

I believe t is several things. First, the Fed has flooded the economy with funds through the CARES Act, the Main Street Lending Program, to name a few. The money has to go somewhere, and there is FOMO – Fear of Missing Out – so everyone is piling into the leading tech stocks. Further evidence is:

1. Junk bond debt issues, as shown above. The demand for yield is high as government debt, and AAA debt is offering such low yields. Thus record amounts of questionable paper have been issued to meet this demand.

2. SPACs. Look no further. Everyone and their dog is jumping into the SPAC space. These blank-check companies have raised about $41 billion, year to date, which is more than the last ten years combined, and Since July 1, about $29 billion. Currently, I understand that over 40 SPACs are looking for merger partners. As I have mentioned before, SPACs tend to overpay, reducing the returns for investors. Given that there are so many buyers right now, we can expect the prices of merger partners to rise and the quality to fall. Of course, the people who make the real money buy the founders’ shares and get the “promote.” Take the case of Alec Gores, who put just $25,000 into his SPAC when went public in January. Once their acquisition is closed, their 0.6% stake will be worth $96 million. Not bad work if you can get it. However, if the founders are doing so well, my advice is to stay away. The SEC is concerned that investors don’t understand how the incentives relate to pay in a $PAC compared to a traditional IPO. There may be regulation.

3. Is Palantir the latest WeWork? According to the Wall Street Journal, bankers have told investors that shares may start trading at $10, valuing Palantir at almost $22 billion when it goes public through a direct listing on September 30. Valued at $20 billion in 2015, Palantir has seen some increase in value. However, in the private markets, it is trading below $20 billion, and this month PitchBook valued Palantir at just $8.8 billion. As I mentioned last week, Scott Galloway in PalanThiel: The Uncola pointed out that “But at 17 years of age, and after raising $3 billion, the ‘start-up’ has never made money. In 2019, Palantir lost $580 million on approximately $740 million in revenues. The idiot client they serve (U.S. government) lost 25 cents on the dollar ($1 trillion deficit vs. $3.5 trillion in revenues) in 2019 vs. 78 cents at Palantir. The firm spent $911 million in marketing over the last 24 months, roughly half of what Tide detergent spent over the same period. The firm has 125 clients, 3 of them accounting for 28% of revenues. Palantir feels more like a services firm, with tech at its core (e.g., Accenture), but one that, unlike a services firm, is massively unprofitable.” Driving all that success if CEO Alexandar Karp, who paid himself $12 million. If the market is valuing this at $20 billion, we must be close to the top!

 

The Housing Market

For those that haven’t noticed, the housing market is booming. Many of us stuck inside have realized that we don’t like our homes are moving. In August, new-home sales increased at the fastest rate since 2006. All this demand is causing a supply and demand problem driving up prices.

However, not for long. As I predicted in April, many people are straining to pay their mortgages. Industry analyst Keith Jurow expects “several million” people will have gone nine months without making a payment when the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s foreclosure and eviction moratorium expires at the end of the year. In July, 17% of FHA-insured mortgages were delinquent, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development. In NYC, 27.2% of mortgages were delinquent in July.

With so much new supply coming online soon, prices may drop, and those that bought now may find they purchased at the top.

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The Downfall of Boeing: A Lesson in Core Values

The Downfall of Boeing: A Lesson in Core Values

Boeing’s 737 Max issues highlighted the company’s sacrifice of safety for financial performance, resulting in a tarnished reputation. The prioritization of profit over core values also damaged the FAA’s credibility and revealed a lack of accountability for top executives. This downfall serves as a reminder of the importance of maintaining core values and prioritizing them over short-term financial gains.

Resolutions, Here We Go Again.

Resolutions, Here We Go Again.

In reflecting on 2021 resolutions, the author scored themselves in three categories and sought to improve success in 2022 by addressing friction points. Drawing on advice from social psychologist Wendy Wood, the author identified areas to reduce or increase friction in their failed resolutions. By making these adjustments, the author aims to enhance their goal achievement and encourages others to consider friction when setting resolutions.

Understanding and Optimizing Your Cash Conversion Cycle

Understanding and Optimizing Your Cash Conversion Cycle

Understanding and optimizing the Cash Conversion Cycle is crucial for business growth, as it impacts cash flow and the ability to access external capital. This cycle consists of four components: Sales, Make/Production & Inventory, Delivery, and Billing and Payments. To improve the Cash Conversion Cycle, companies can eliminate mistakes, shorten cycle times, and revamp their business models.

Discovering Your Niche: Why You Need to Be Famous for Something

Discovering Your Niche: Why You Need to Be Famous for Something

As an entrepreneur, it’s crucial to specialize in a specific area and become famous for something, allowing you to generate referrals and build your brand. Understanding the “job” you’re hired for helps you stand out in the marketplace and communicate your value proposition effectively. By providing value to your clients, you can adopt a value-based pricing approach, ensuring your business remains competitive and maintains a strong market presence.

Rethinking Your Pricing Model: Maximizing Margins and Providing Value

Rethinking Your Pricing Model: Maximizing Margins and Providing Value

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Do you know your Profit per X to drive dramatic growth?

Do you know your Profit per X to drive dramatic growth?

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The War for Talent: 5 Ways to Attract the Best Employees

The War for Talent: 5 Ways to Attract the Best Employees

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Are you killing your firm’s WFH productivity?

Are you killing your firm’s WFH productivity?

Productivity remained during WFH with COVID. However, further analysis found that hourly productivity fell and was compensated for by employees working more hours. What was the culprit – Meetings. Want to increase productivity, have fewer meetings.

Need to Escape, Flights to Nowhere!

Need to Escape, Flights to Nowhere!

As I have discussed several times, we are struggling in the COVID world of working more hours, with more conference calls, little time to turn off and recharge. However, breaks are more critical as we need downtime from deadlines and stress and to recharge. Burnout is becoming a large factor and causing falling productivity among all of us. We work longer but are less effective. Thus while overall productivity may be ahead, the cost is enormous.

Furthermore, with Zoom, Skype, Teams, Hangout, etc., there is a belief that since you are at home, you are always available. One executive I know has been in the Azores for a couple of weeks with his wife as she is from there. A board he is on just rescheduled its board meeting, and he is facing a board meeting from 12 am to 3 am, which in my opinion, is ridiculous. We all need to understand that many of us are no longer where we were during regular times. Some are at vacation homes, some are with elderly parents, some are stuck in other countries, and some are homeschooling kindergarteners first thing in the morning. Thus, we need to adopt a much efficient approach and ask if times are convenient for all the call’s potential members.

The assumption that everyone is available at all times so we can put meetings on their schedule at any time is causing even more chaos and exhaustion. Further, while the new time might suit the most senior member of the call, if they need input from the others who cannot provide it due to the time, then the meeting is a waste of time, and burnout increases.

I took a week’s vacation about three weeks ago and failed miserably. The best I managed was one day with only one call and four hours of work. Looking at my falling productivity, burnout, and listlessness, my wife and I agreed on a do-over. This week we took another vacation, and I have done much better with little work and meetings. I can already feel my energy levels and thinking improve. We all need a break, and like on airplanes, when the oxygen mask comes down, take care of yourself first, so you can then take care of others.

Thus, finding time to create that quiet space where you can reflect and recharge your batteries is a battle that many of us now face.  Many executives say the most significant thing they miss in our new world is that time on aircraft when they were effectively out of reach and had that quiet time.

Naturally, markets responded, and some airlines, none in the U.S., are offering “Flights to Nowhere.” Thousands of people have booked flights in Brunei, Taiwan, Japan, and Australia that finish where they started and are called either “scenic flights” or “flights to nowhere.”

  • Royal Brunei, since mid-August, has flown five of these flights. As Brunei has had very few coronavirus cases, passengers are not required to wear masks, but staff members are.
  • EVA, the Taiwanese airline, sold all 309 seats on its Hello Kitty-themed A330 Dream jet for Father’s Day.
  • Japan’s All Nippon Airways had a Hawaiian-resort-themed, 90-minute-flight with 300 people on board.
  • Qantas sold out its flight to nowhere over Australia in 10 minutes last Thursday. Tickets ranged in price from $575 to $2,765. The flight will go around Australia, flying over the Northern Territory, Queensland, and New South Wales.
  • Qantas has also brought back its popular sightseeing flights to Antarctica that don’t land in Antarctica but allow passengers to walk around the aircraft and have different Antarctica views.
  • Starlux, the Taiwanese airline, is working to make the flight-to-nowhere experience a luxurious one by allowing people to buy packages for the flight and a hotel stay. Since August, the airline has run six flights to nowhere and has about a dozen more scheduled through October, and most of them have sold out within 10 minutes of being announced. The airline requires masks and social distancing on all fights.

For those that see flying more than as a method of getting from A to B, these flights provide either the exciting flying experience or the quiet time they have missed due to COVID. For those who need to escape being online always. I can appreciate the quiet time flying provided. I loved long-haul flights with no WiFi and considered them a great time to read and get “thought” work done. But the idea of a “flight to nowhere” has little appeal. I have my first cross country flight since March next month, and while I may change my view, I doubt it.

However, for those executives who cannot manage to find a quiet time without getting on a plane, I would suggest revisiting your priorities and finding that peaceful time once a week of at least two hours. Make sure that:

  • You have blocked out the time on your calendar, so you cannot be disturbed;
  • You have turned off your phone;
  • If using your computer, you have turned off your email; and
  • You are somewhere where you will not be disturbed by a spouse, partner, kids, or pets.

Furthermore, start considering all the others on your multitude of video calls to ensure that the times suit them and that they will be in a position to provide the most significant input. Otherwise, you are just increasing stress and burnout and doing nothing productive.

I believe quite times to be of great value, and if you can create that habit and space now, it should serve you well after COVID has ended without a need to fight your way through airports, security, and eat lousy food. I think we all would benefit from more of this time, especially as we are “busier” than ever but are questionably productive.

 

Copyright (c) 2020, Marc A. Borrelli

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Are you killing your firm’s WFH productivity?

Are you killing your firm’s WFH productivity?

Productivity remained during WFH with COVID. However, further analysis found that hourly productivity fell and was compensated for by employees working more hours. What was the culprit – Meetings. Want to increase productivity, have fewer meetings.