What if the Coronavirus Comes to the US?

What if the Coronavirus Comes to the US?

My last blog post talked about the effects of the coronavirus that appeared on Sunday, before Monday’s fall in the market. Now, I want to look at the impact if the coronavirus comes to the U.S., as the CDC expects.

 

Slowing the Spread

Listening to a virologist today, he said that if the virus comes, the way to slow the spread is:

  • Stay home if you are sick;

  • Keep kids at home if they are sick;

  • Avoid unnecessary travel; and

  • If it gets worse, stop large gatherings of people, i.e., sporting events, conferences, and church congregations.

  • Also, firms should look at ways to allow workers to telecommute.

All of these suggestions are fine in principle but unlikely to be effective immediately due to the nature of the U.S., namely:

  • No social net, so people are unlikely to stay home if sick. Under many changes to SNAP and other programs, people who don’t work are ineligible for benefits, so they will keep working as long as they can.

  • Inadequate health insurance for many due to the current administration’s rollback of the Affordable Care Act regulations and allowance of so-called “junk plans” in the market, with the result that many poor people will not get tested due to the costs;

  • No security net for parents whose kids are sick and cannot afford to stay home and look after them. They will send their kids to school because their children need food and they need to work.

  • No security net for many gig workers, i.e., Uber drivers, who are will see a fall in income as travel decreases. If the virus transferable through surfaces, this will be even worse.

  • No social net for many workers in the travel industry, i.e., hotel employees, wait staff at restaurants, and those at conference venues as travel expenditure falls.

Therefore, sick people will stop working only when companies shut their doors. Many firms are unlikely to institute testing due to cost concerns; thus, I expect many firms to operate until the number of sick people is so high that the firm has to close.

Thus, I see the spread being higher and faster than in China and Italy, which have instituted significant measures to stop human contact. If the government does implement the type of action that China and Italy have, we can expect a fall in incomes, an increase in bankruptcies, and more social unrest.

 

Supply Chain Disruption

A virus in the U.S., for the reasons above, would further disrupt the supply chain as iI discussed in my previous post and by others. Companies would get into issues, due to:

  • No Products due to a lack of raw materials, a lack of workers to build products, or in the travel industry, no customers.

  • No Sales. The end customer may no be purchasing as they cannot use the products as they have too much inventory or just a reduction in demand as workers stay home.

The effect of this would be to slow sales, but more importantly, slow down cash flow and thus cause far more significant damage. Companies don’t go out of business because they lose money; they go out of business because they run out of cash. Several articles have mentioned the precarious financial position of low credit corporate borrowers. If cash flow dries up, we can expect many of these companies to fail, leading to a domino effect on healthier ones, as we saw in 2008. Also, many over-leveraged companies would have to implement drastic measures to survive; thus, we can expect more layoffs and fewer purchases. None of this bodes well for the economy. Given that Goldman has dropped its GDP forecast to 1.2% for the quarter, we could be negative territory as global demand slows, and more disruption of global supply chains continues.

 

The Effect on the Medical Establishment

Overall, from what I have read, I don’t see many people dying given the fatality rate of coronavirus. However, if there is a widespread infection, hospitals would be overwhelmed due to a lack of investment and preparedness in them over the decades. Also, with many insurance policies providing limited coverage, the medical facilities could face significant uncollectable expenses, further damaging them. Leading to a further deterioration in the medical establishment, especially in rural areas.

None of this bodes well for slowing the spread or helping the economy recover quickly. However, if there is underinvestment in medical facilities, cuts to emergency pandemic response teams, and no security nets for the poorest in the economy, as we saw in 2008, the bill always comes due, and we hate paying it.

 

Copyright (c) 2020, Marc A. Borrelli

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Want to Grow Your Business: Consider a Board of Advisors

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Many privately owned businesses don’t have Boards of Directors since they don’t have outside shareholders there is no need to. However, having a Board of Advisors has been shown to result in a 3x greater growth in sales and profits than companies without them.

 

What is a Board of Advisors?

A Board of Advisors comprises 3 to four high-level executives who provide the CEO with advice and are focused on the CEO’s success. However, unlike a Board of Directors, the CEO doesn’t have to take their advice. Their role is to:

  • Hold him and the management team accountable. We all believe we can hold ourselves accountable but fail miserably;
  • Act as a coach;
  • As the difficult questions or the questions no one is asking;
  • Enable the CEO to focus ON the business and not IN the business – to stop the tyranny of urgency taking precedence over the important;
  • Validate the CEO’s ideas and strategy; and
  • Bring their experience to the company.

Many CEOs are dealing with their business their business issues and fighting fires. As a result, they don’t get a chance to focus on the business and discuss ideas and strategies with people who have a lot of experience and can guide them. There is that old saying, “You don’t know what you don’t know” and a Board of Advisors can help the CEO navigate through such areas.

What is a Board of Advisors not! It is not a group of people to make introductions to potential sales targets.

 

Who should be on the Board?

The Board of Advisors is there to help you and should not have other interests, so it should not include advisors or consultants that you already use, i.e. your accountant or lawyer. Also, it is not necessary to get a marquee name that has retired. More useful is to get middle to upper management that has real experience with the issues the CEO is facing and from a range of industries. That way he can get the benefit of best practices across all industries and learn of new solutions to problems in the industry. As times change and the company faces new issues, the board should change to have a membership with experience with such issues.

Like a marriage, you need the right partners. These are people the CEO can rely on to provide good advice and like your doctor will see you “naked”. Ideally a group with different skill sets that complement the CEO’s skills and deal with issues currently facing the company.

 

How should they be compensated?

People often joke that Board of Advisors is just paid coffee, water and a bagel. Typically they don’t work for much; however, it is advisable to pay them a stipend, i.e. $20k, even if it is a contribution to a charity in their name. Why? Because you are asking them of their time and commitment, and if compensated, they are more likely to return that urgent call when you have a crisis. Also they should all be paid the same.

Sometimes they also get equity; however, since many of the companies seeking a Board of Advisors are private, the company doesn’t want to give equity. However, synthetic equity works such instances. In addition, if you have a Board of Advisors and are raising equity capital, all the Board members need to have purchased equity in the business, as most Angel and Venture Capitalists will not see it as positive the Board of Advisors is not willing to invest.

 

How often should the Board of Advisors meet?

Typically, they should meet between four and six times a year. Not less than four, and if over four maybe the additional meetings should be telephonic. The meetings are often 4 hours as well as some preparation time of maybe 10 hours, so if you are asking for six meetings per year, you are asking for a commitment of 84 hours a year or two weeks.

 

When do you need them?

A small company can always use the independent outside input; however, they are especially useful when going through inflection points in the company’s life, or the marketplace is changing dramatically. When dealing with something the company has not faced before, the Board of Advisors can be invaluable to the CEO as he navigates a new course. If you realize you need one it is often too late. However, most important is that the CEO must believe that they will be beneficial, and the CEO must be coachable. If not there is no point!

 

Who should attend?

The senior management I believe to be best. However, not necessarily all at once! They can each attend as their area is discussed and reviewed. As a result, they are receiving coaching too, and the benefit of the Board’s expertise as strategies are proposed and discussed. However, there should be just a time for the CEO as there are only things that can be discussed with the CEO, i.e. the perceived performance of a senior manager or the CEO’s failure to live up to his deliverables.

 

Should there be agreements with them?

While they are not a Board of Directors, you should have agreements with them. These agreements need to set out, among other things:

  • Pay – They know what they are getting.
  • Time Commitment – They know what they are committing to.
  • Liability – They know what to expect.
  • Term – They can let them go when the company needs different skills with no difficulty
  • Nondisclosure terms and non-competes as relevant – protects all parties.

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Lessons from Rollerblading: Overworking and the Importance of Staying Alert in Business

Lessons from Rollerblading: Overworking and the Importance of Staying Alert in Business

Last Tuesday, I rejoined a rollerblading group for their leisurely skate night. However, the group decided to engage in an hour and a half of hill work in preparation for a long road skate. After thirteen exhausting miles, I arrived at my car, removed my skates, and closed the trunk—only to be hit in the head by my bike rack. My tiredness had caused me to forget about the rack and make a careless mistake.

This experience made me think about the corporate world and the countless overworked CEOs and employees I’ve encountered. The pressure and workload have increased as companies have laid off staff to improve their bottom line. These hardworking individuals often admit to being tired and overwhelmed, which could lead to making mistakes or missing critical information.

In a steady-state environment, it’s possible to work flat out and stay focused. However, our world is constantly changing, and disruptions can occur unexpectedly. If unprepared, these disruptions can cause significant damage to an organization’s competitiveness, profit margins, or even its survival. It’s crucial to ensure that you and your team have the opportunity to look up from the daily grind and assess the environment around you. The cost of overworking and the inability to respond to unexpected challenges can far outweigh any perceived benefits of keeping costs low. In the end, you don’t want the competition or unforeseen circumstances to catch you off guard.

© 2013 Marc Borrelli All Rights Reserved

 
 
Regenerate response

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Lessons from Squash Applied to Business

Lessons from Squash Applied to Business

The last piece in my series, “Lessons I Learned from Sports that Apply to Business,” covers a game that I love, Squash. The key points from squash that apply to business, in my opinion, are: (i) dominate the “T”; (ii) keep the other person on the defensive; (iii) not every stroke is a winning one; and (iv) when stuck in a war of attrition, change the game.

Dominating the “T”

In squash, the “T” is an intersection of lines near the center of the court where the player is in the best position to retrieve the opponent’s next shot. In business, the same is true. Corporate strategy is about managing uncertainty by creating a portfolio of necessary strategic and growth options that allow the company to respond to a changing environment – in effect, returning to the “T.”

Keeping Your Opponent on the Defensive

In squash, the aim is to keep your opponent on the defensive until you can hit a winning shot. In business, the key is continually keeping your competition on the defensive so they cannot attack. When you launch the winning product, your competitors are effectively neutralized and not able to muster an adequate response.

Not Every Shot is a Winning Shot

As the players’ ability improves in squash, the game becomes one of attrition. In business, while most planning assumes a ceteris paribus basis, the launch of a new product or strategy nearly always elicits a response from the competition. However, if, in responding to your strategy or new product, the competition has put itself in a position where they are unable to respond to your next move effectively, you can take a market leadership position or redefine the market.

The Follow-Up is the Winning Shot

In squash, the follow-up shot to some change or new move is often the winning shot. In business, if a company launches a winning product or redefines the market during periods of market turbulence and recession, the competition cannot respond adequately, and the company can take a market leadership position.

Changing the Game in a War of Attrition

In squash, if you get into a war of attrition, it is best to change the game to retake the advantage. In business, it is the same. You have to change the game by (i) changing the tempo of play, (ii) changing the height of the ball, or (iii) being unpredictable. This can throw off your competitors and move you into a more competitive position.

Conclusion

Keep playing, and remember to keep your competitors playing defense as much as possible, so you can take advantage when needed. By applying these lessons from squash to business, you can improve your competitiveness and adapt to a constantly changing environment.

© 2012 Marc Borrelli All Rights Reserved

 

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Lessons I Learned from Snow Skiing that Apply to Business

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I have loved skiing ever since I first started 40 years ago. When I first started, I thought the aim was to go straight down the mountain as fast as you could; however, a broken leg soon cured that misconception. Still today, I see many people bragging about how they skied down this challenging run or the other, but having seen them ski, I realize that they are getting down with little style or ability, and gravity is the main contributor. While they have survived, the chance of repeatedly doing this is small. In business as in skiing, the key is to be able to do successful things regularly.

 

Continuously adjust to changing conditions

Looking at great skiers, they move effortlessly down the mountain. All you see is the fluidity of their movement and their rhythm. What you never notice is the changing slope of the mountain and changing snow. When watching lesser skiers, you can tell when the conditions change – in the moguls, their rhythm abandons them, and on the ice, they flail around. Thus the differentiating factor better an excellent skier and an average skier, in my opinion, is the ability to adjust continuously to the changing conditions below your feet.

In the corporate world, those companies that can maintain the company’s performance through the continuous changing and challenging business and economic conditions are the great ones. They appear to make it effortless in their execution, but it is not. It requires great skill and the ability to anticipate and react to changing conditions. Coca Cola, well known as the largest provider of many soft drinks and beverages, manages to maintain its market leadership in Japan, where there are over 7,000 different soft drinks, and it launches over 1,000 new products every year. Coca Cola maintains that leadership by continuously introducing new products and adjusting to the changing conditions and tastes of its consumers.

 

The upper body is still, the skier looks ahead, and the legs adjust and absorb.

Watch skiers as they ski the moguls, they are looking 2 to 3 turns ahead (remember where your eyes go your body follows) down the mountain. Their upper bodies are relatively still, while their legs are moving like pistons, absorbing and extending through the moguls as they guide their skies.

To me, the upper body is the strategy of the company, still focused ahead on the goals and plotting the best course ahead to achieve them. The legs are corporate tactics that are required by the environment to realize the strategy. As the business environment, the mountain is never constant; success requires continually adjusting to the changing conditions by changing and adjusting tactics to reach the corporate strategic goals.

When skiing moguls, if you sit back on your skis, you lose the ability to steer the skis and so lose control and will crash. Often the solution, when you do start to sit back, has been described as effectively throwing your body down the mountain so that your center of gravity will pass your feet, and you can regain control of the skis and steer them. Companies often “sit back” and then they are in trouble as the industry changes, and they cannot change direction with it. An example of this, I would describe Apple before Steve Job’s return. The company was sitting back, not controlling its path in the industry. To save it, it had to throw itself ahead and gain control of its direction in the industry.

 

“If there is no snow on your ski jacket, you are not improving.”

Phil Maher, the great US skier, once told me this, and I have always appreciated it. What is meant by this statement is:

  • If you don’t have snow on your ski jacket, you haven’t fallen.

  • If you haven’t fallen you are not pushing yourself outside your comfort zone; and

  • If you don’t push yourself outside your comfort zone, you are not growing.

The same is true of companies; if you don’t take risks, you cannot succeed. Many writers have covered the thesis that the opposite of success is not a failure, but not succeeding. Strategies that make companies successful are the same strategies that make them losers; it just depends on how the future unfolds (See “The Strategy Paradox” by Michael E. Raynor). The tradeoff is that most strategies are built on specific beliefs about an unpredictable future. Still, the current approach forces leaders to commit to an inflexible strategy regardless of how the future might unfold. Thus success or failure is often up to chance. To be successful, you have to commit to a plan that has risk, but at the same time, be flexible and adaptable. Regardless, there are times when the company will “fall.” If the company cannot fall, it must play it safe so as not to fail; however, nor can it succeed, it just exists in a constant state of mediocrity, leading to a slow demise.

Many companies and management teams play it safe as they will still receive their compensation but not face risk. A recent McKinsey article suggested that companies should innovate more, but behavioral bias is stopping them, and they are too risk-averse (http://bit.ly/oC5XyU). Taking risks implies there may be a failure, but often that growth or failure can move the company in a new, unanticipated direction, leading to greater success. However, failing to take on risk stops the organization and its management from growing. When they stop growing, they lose the ability to adjust to change effectively, and the ability to take risks is weaned out of the company. At a time like that, many companies try to buy their way out of trouble, acquiring new technologies and clients at excessive multiples, which often delays the death spiral. That is because the risk-taking culture and learning through growth have gone, and so while the company adds products and clients, the underlying behavior doesn’t change, so the decline continues.

 

© 2011 Marc Borrelli All Rights Reserved

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